I've spent some time searching this question, but I have yet to find a satisfying answer. The majority of answers that I have seen state something along the lines of the following:
- "It's just good security practice."
- "You need it if you are running a server."
- "You need it if you don't trust the other devices on the network."
- "You need it if you are not behind a NAT."
- "You need it if you don't trust the software running on your computer."
The only answer that makes any sense to me is #5. #1 leaves a lot to be desired, as it advocates for doing something without thinking about why you're doing it -- it is essentially a non-answer. #2 is strange -- why does it matter? If one is hosting a webserver on port 80, for example, they are going to poke a hole in their router's NAT at port 80 to open that server's port to the public. What difference does it make to then have another firewall that needs to be port forwarded? #3 is a strange one -- what sort of malicious behaviour could even be done to a device with no firewall? If you have no applications listening on any port, then there's nothing to access. #4 feels like an extension of #3 -- only, in this case, it is most likely a larger group that the device is exposed to. #5 is the only one that makes some sense; if you install a program that you do not trust (you don't know how it works), you don't want it to be able to readily communicate with the outside world unless you explicitly grant it permission to do so. Such an unknown program could be the door to get into your device, or a spy on your device's actions.
If anything, a firewall only seems to provide extra precautions against mistakes made by the user, rather than actively preventing bad actors from getting in. People seem to treat it as if it's acting like the front door to a house, but this analogy doesn't make much sense to me -- without a house (a service listening on a port), what good is a door?
They also would not realistically be doing anything that would cause open ports on their machine to serve data to some external application. It's not like someone can just "hack" your computer by picking a random port and weaseling their way in. They have to have some exploitable mechanism on the machine that serves data in a way that's insecure.
I am assuming that there's a hierarchy of needs in terms of maintaining any Linux system. Whenever you learn how to use something (and you would have to learn how to use a firewall), you are sacrificing time and energy that would be spent learning something else. Knowing how your package manager works, or how to use systemctl, or understanding your file system structure, or any number of pieces of fundamental Linux knowledge is, for a less technically sophisticated user, going to do comparatively more to guarantee the longevity and health of their system than learning how to use a firewall, which is something capable of severely negatively impacting your user experience if you misconfigure it. In other words: don't mess around with a firewall if you don't know what you're doing. Use your time learning other things first if you're a not technically sophisticated user. I also don't exactly know what "mistakes" you'd be mitigating by installing a firewall if you aren't binding processes to those ports (something a novice user should not be doing anyway).
You just wrote that "One’s own mistakes could certainly be interpreted as a potential threat, and are, therefore, worthy of mitigation." The best way of mitigating mistakes is by not making them in the first place, or creating a scenario in which you could potentially make them. Prevention is always better than cure. You should never open ports on your local network. Ever. I don't care if you have firewalls on everything down to your smart thermostat - if you need to expose locally hosted services you should be maintaining a cloud VM or similar cloud based service that forwards connections to the desired service on your internal network via a VPN like Tailscale. Or, even better, just put Tailscale's service on whatever machine you're using that needs access to your personal network. And, yes, if you're doing things like that, you would also want robust firewall protections everywhere. But the firewall simply isn't ever "enough."
Anyway, just my 2 cents. The more you know and do, the greater steps you should take to protect yourself. For someone who knows very little, the most important thing that can help them is knowing more, and there is a hierarchy of learning that will take them from "knowing little" to "knowing much," but they shouldn't/don't need to concern themselves with certain mechanisms before they know enough to reliably use them or mitigate their own mistakes. That said, if you are a new user, you're probably installing a linux distro that already comes with its own preconfigured firewall that's already running and you just don't know about it. In which case, moot point. If you're not, though, I'm assuming your goal is learning linux stuff, in which case, I've gone into that.
They may not explicitly do it, no, but I could certainly see the possibility of the software that they use having such a vulnerability, or even a malicious bit of software inadvertently being installed on their device.
This sort of skirts around answering the question.
But mistakes will be made all the same.
This is exactly the point that I am trying to make. Having contingencies in place on the off chance that something doesn't go as expected could certainly be interpreted as "prevention".
What would be the rationale for this statement?
I'm not sure that I understand what issue that this would solve. Would the malicious connections not still be forwarded through the VPN to the service? I am quite lacking in knowledge on Tailscale, and how related infrastructure is used in production, so please pardon my ignorance.