this post was submitted on 24 Jan 2024
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Telegram is going to be Telegram, but there is a bit of debunking going on there. (... if you even want to call it debunking. Telegram channels are extremely biased and quickly spread rumors, true or not.)
A passenger manifest for the plane was released and supposedly most of the Ukrainians on that list were traded months earlier.
Russians have quarantined the crash site and are not providing proof that Ukrainians were on the plane.
Only one body is shown amid the wreckage area, which is unusual for a plane that was supposed to be filled with prisoners.
That's the current gossip, anyway. If it's true or not, we will not actually know for a bit.
Afaik that passenger manifest was revealed to be fake. Telegram going to Telegram, so YMMV.
Current theory is that Russians told Ukrainian general staff that there was going to be a prisoner exchange that would be delivered by IL-76, but miscommunication led to nobody on the ground getting the news. I don't believe Ukrainian AD was acting out of malice.
We know a prisoner exchange was supposed to happen at the border near Belgorod, we know IL-76s were used to transport POWs in the past, and we also know Ukraine shot down the IL-76. We also know Russia doesn't usually operate IL-76 so close to the Ukrainian AD umbrella, so...
Yeah, Telegram is an interesting place for that sweet, sweet hit of confirmation bias dopamine.