this post was submitted on 29 Jun 2023
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Reddit is too big to fail, they have achieved critical mass. Keep in mind facebook is still around despite being a reviled company, and instagram certainly hasn't had a mass migration off of the platform either.
At the end of the day Lemmy isn't a replacement to reddit yet. It depends entirely upon it getting traction which thus far still hasn't occurred - we are not at critical mass yet. I hope it happens but there are many reasons why this site could fail even after reddit's admin blunders. Too many people are apathetic to the changes and not all of them are lurkers who do not post or comment.
Today you can't just stop using reddit either, especially for google searches. Too much content is ONLY on reddit. It's a huge problem. We really need a wikipedia style reddit where it's not for profit and still moderated for content.
Digg had critical mass. It went down in flames.
It doesn't take bajillions of users to generate enough content to form a reasonable alternative.
Niche subreddits will be hard to recreate though unfortunately, but plenty of time to grow. And long-term, federated seems like a good model so that once these communities are rebuilt they aren't at the mercy a company who's main concern is short-term profits.
Federation makes so much sense for reddit style communities. I hope it's able to catch on