this post was submitted on 29 Jun 2023
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Reddit is too big to fail, they have achieved critical mass. Keep in mind facebook is still around despite being a reviled company, and instagram certainly hasn't had a mass migration off of the platform either.
At the end of the day Lemmy isn't a replacement to reddit yet. It depends entirely upon it getting traction which thus far still hasn't occurred - we are not at critical mass yet. I hope it happens but there are many reasons why this site could fail even after reddit's admin blunders. Too many people are apathetic to the changes and not all of them are lurkers who do not post or comment.
Today you can't just stop using reddit either, especially for google searches. Too much content is ONLY on reddit. It's a huge problem. We really need a wikipedia style reddit where it's not for profit and still moderated for content.
Digg still exists even if it's a shell of its former self. Tumbler imploded and moved to Twitter, which is trying its damnedest to destroy itself too. They don't disappear, they just slowly become irrelevant.
Reddit will still exist, but the content will continue to dry out. Sanitized for advertising and low effort for consumption. The thousands of small self contained communities that really drove the site will slowly die off. Subs that relied on outside moderating tools to ensure quality content will give up and move on.
As small hobby subs find new places to take residence I would absolutely believe reddit will become less relevant.
MySpace is still up, you can theoretically go open up a new profile on there right now and connect with whoever the heck else is still on there, but it's no longer a zillion-dollar megasite.