this post was submitted on 05 Jan 2024
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Technological progress is exponential.
Law of adjacent possibilities
I think that's true for only a planet with indefinite resources. We haven't really hit many caps yet, but I believe things will start to slow down within a lifetime.
We're also, in my view, hitting the limits of what certain technologies can do. Internal combustion engines, for example, are near the limit of what they can do as far as efficiency is concerned. We're also bumping into the limits as far as semiconductors are concerned.
There's also diminishing returns with trying to wring out the very last piece of efficiency from a system, so yes, I do think we're going to see a plateau in terms of technological progress, at least in some areas.
This is true for older technologies.
Like combustion as you said, we used it a lot and pretty much designed it the best we can with the materials we know and have. But there will be completely new technologies opening up, like maybe fusion. Or solar we know already since a while but made major improvements the last decade and will probably improve it even more.
I was more thinking about how we had this technology rush. I think it is mostly due to the use of fossil fuels and therefore "incredible cheap" energy which also led to humans reproduce a lot. (incredible cheap in quotation marks, because we will probably have to pay the real price which is environmental damage and a modified atmosphere)
When you have a world with 3 times (random number based on nothing) more people you also have 3 times more great artists, scientists, etc. Of course only, if society stays more or less the same. Imagine how many great works we could have if the majority of great minds wasn't preoccupied paying for food and a place to stay like in a hamster wheel.
We already are. There's a reason you don't see intel and amd chips past 5ghz, for example.
Or how modern cars are still functionally the same from 10 years ago just with more spyware and bloat.
The ones that aren't hybrid or EV, at least.
Mate, the first Prius came out in 2006. It's 2024. That's some stagnant ass growth if you ask me.
Actually the SECOND GEN prius came out in 2003. The first gen prius came out in 01 in Japan.
And? Look at the specs for a current gen prius, they're bigger, faster, more efficient, plug in hybrid, and have better tech. They've come a long way.
25 years of progress down to "It's bigger!" sure thing champ! not the point im trying to make.
Did you read the rest of the comment?