this post was submitted on 18 Dec 2023
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[–] [email protected] 16 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (2 children)

For now it's just barking. But we'll have years of this bullshit if the Russians 'win' in Ukraine, especially if Trump wins and weakens NATO by even hinting at the US not coming to the defence of allies.

Even if Putin isn't dumb enough to actually invade the Baltics or Finland, the Russians will engage in an endless stream of provocations. Military exercises and buildups near the border, bomber runs that are aborted at the last moment, that kind of thing. The likelihood of a miscalculation or mistake will increase dramatically.

On the other hand, if the Ukrainians win, Russia will never be able to withdraw significant amounts of troops from the Ukrainian border. Ukraine is a large and highly educated country, with a battle hardened military, and with a long history of weapons making. Russia will effectively have been muzzled for the foreseeable future.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 11 months ago

funny because they have already been doing that

[–] mea_rah 3 points 11 months ago

the Russians will engage in an endless stream of provocations

🌍🧑‍🚀🔫🧑‍🚀

Always has been.

Brinkmanship is one of russian favorite pastimes.