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I'm still finding it extremely unlikely he's electable. Not saying we shouldn't take it seriously, though.
Over the years many conservative anti-vaxxers have died from covid, boomers are dying off, and anyone who wasn't already a trumper isn't exactly lining up.
Most economic indicators are trending very well; meanwhile the abortion topic continues to backfire tremendously.
2022 proved polls don't sufficiently capture millennial and zoomers.
I'm GenX, and I wouldn't answer a poll if you paid me. I will vote, and I will never vote for a Republican for the rest of my life. If there's no Dem candidate on the ballot for a specific office, I leave it blank so they can see how many votes they're not getting when they don't run a candidate.
My plan for the next year is to answer every opinion poll.
I’m going to tell every pollster who will listen I’m not voting because I won’t vote for republicans, and Democrats haven’t done anything to deserve my vote - because they had 60 years to make abortion access federal law, they have had numerous opportunities to unwind Medicare Part D, and in 2021 they should have made the ACA better, overturned Citizens United, fixed the Voter Rights Act, and worked to improve turnout by mandating federal voting holidays (amongst other things), but they didn’t, and instead their whole modern platform is that they will slow walk the U.S. into corporate and theocratic ownership slower than the Republicans.
And then I’m going to vote anyway, because I’m not a child. But I won’t be telling pollsters that. The Democratic Party needs to fear what their milquetoast policies have wrought.
That's not how polling works
It's not, but evidently polling isn't capturing these groups effectively. Again, as 2020 and 2022 proved.
I don't answer polls as a GenX, but I sure as hell vote in every election. I will never vote for a Republican. Polls won't capture voters like me, and voters like me are not just millennials and zoomers.
Polling isn't as simple as adding up responses and reporting the percentages.
They use complex methodologies to account for inaccuracies exactly like your good self.
That's not to say that polls are necessarily accurate - clearly they aren't, but to say "polls won't capture voters like me" is incorrect.