this post was submitted on 21 Nov 2023
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You are saying this stuff after-the-fact, this is all just explaining why it did well and absolutely nothing to explain why anyone would predict it to be a success on the level it was.
Here's the rub, no one did. Not gamers, not people who's job it is to do this, not the developers. No one. And rightfully so, nothing about bg3 suggests mega hit for someone living in march 2023.
Perhaps it's just me naively believing that something with a legacy behind it (and fanbase) can be a mega hit then. Because honestly, if KOTOR 3 was announced with a competant studio behind it, or a Warcraft sequel, or a Legacy of Kain continuation...i don't see how they wouldn't be mega hits regardless of when they come out if they were all treated with the same care Larian treated Baldur's Gate 3 with (and they don't, you know, take forever and a half to release like System Shock Remake did)
The landscape is cluttered with series that have legacy and failed projects from good studios. It's not enough to make a prediction on, nevermind an outlier prediction like that of bg3. Bg3 was so huge of an outlier that you can't even put it in line with normal successful products.