this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2023
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Am not trying just to be negative. Explosion disperses debris in all directions, and it wasn't a small explosion and it wasn't a small spaceship either but more to the point to quote wikipedia:
So I should have said LEO region, but still. Rocket exploded at 146km, which can pose issues. Hopefully it won't. But it remains to be seen. Kessler syndrome is a real threat.
It's about velocity, not altitude. The pieces from the explosion would need to get a fairly dramatic dv addition prograde to end up near orbital. The explosion seems pretty undirected, so the force will be spread in all directions, so most of the force won't be prograde. Even still, it can't be orbital. It'd need some other force added later on its trajectory or it eventually had to pass through the same altitude that the explosion happened, which is in-atmosphere and will cause fairly quick decay. There is no risk of Kessler syndrome. It could potentially have posed a risk to some very low satellites, but we'd already have seen that happen by now if it were going to.
Let's hope that's the case. It's unlikely I agree.