Ukraine

As weird as it is to say, especially because there's lives at stake and this shit ain't game of thrones, Prigozhin acted a helluva lot smarter than I had expected. I had him pegged as a convenient dumb thug, but he has played his cards overwhelming correctly here.

Putin is still visibly running shit while shit is circling the drain, and is still the big boss that is leading the charge for war.

Prigozhin has spent a lot of this war sending meat into the grinder, to be sure, but it's also looking like he's gone out of his way to send the conscripts into the heat and has kept back his more seasoned and loyalist troops. Those troops loyalty has likely been reinforced by Prigozhin protecting them from being included in meat-wave attacks, while at the same time they've also seen exactly how Russia itself treats its own soldiers. He's been given a perfect environment to forge an ultra-loyalist core within his mercenary company.

He's waited until things are absolutely, massively, dire for Russia and when he knows that Russian supply and troop movements won't be able to respond to brief insurrection. It's almost unquestioned that he could not take Moscow, much less seize power directly. He doesn't have the manpower, he doesn't have the support among the elites, he doesn't have the supplies. He cannot coup. But he managed to rattle huge portions of establishment Russia, show that establishment Russia is not as safe or secure as the establishment says, and has aligned himself with veterans, ultra-loyalists, and anti-war camps all in one move. Then, by taking the overnight deal and agreeing to withdraw, he not only "gets away with it" but even looks like he was the generous one, granting reprieve to the capital.

To the bulk of the public, there's a shuffling of chairs at the top of the military - while more pragmatically speaking Prigozhin has arranged for removal of two of his direct rivals, and has negotiated replacing them with allies. It's been widely rumoured and seems to be accepted that Wagner was given some of the worst assignments and was routinely under-supplied - not just because that's The Russian Way, but because Shiogu and Gerasimov saw Prigozhin as a direct threat and Wagner losing troops or looking weak directly erodes his power in Russia. He's come out of this with a large core of loyal, seasoned, troops still reasonably equipped, and has put on a performance of power and strength that it was impossible for Russia to miss. He got to go through the spectacle of beating the Russian military on home turf in one their own strongholds, and had both their own troops and local citizenry appearing to side with Wagner's threat of coup - but all without having to commit entirely and risk the probable failure.

The balance of power behind the curtain has shifted significantly, for all that the man in front of the curtain - Putin - remains firmly in charge. And Prigozhin even managed to tiptoe through the entire episode without challenging Putin directly and while giving Putin a way out of the PR disaster he's facing - that just happens to require aligning himself even more closely with Prigozhin's camp.

Like, not going to go all out like this is 5D chess shit or something, but it's an impressively cunning series of moves to have set up his forces for this moment, to know when to strike, and when to accept terms and take an exit; all of which I'd have thought would be above the head of a guy who mostly seemed like more of a brutish fixer than someone who might be adept at playing political games.

I think at this point Putin is looking for a way out that isn't a bullet. The real problem for dictators isn't gaining, or holding, power - it's how to retire safely.

At the moment, there's impasse. Putin is still in charge, Prigozhin is still deferential, and this matter has resolved in a way where neither man has to maintain conflict or lose face. Prigozhin has his forces out of the crucible that will be the coming months of counteroffensive, he's safe to consolidate and build power in Russia, while Putin is still holding the bag on the failed war and Putin's main option as far as passing the buck will involve blaming the high-up military and intelligence figures - who are currently responsible for keeping Putin safe. He'd have to turn to other allies to protect him, and Prigozhin is posturing up to become the only viable option.