Putin was a dictator that ruled through a strongman public persona. However, the leader of the mercenary group, demanding a change of the military's top leadership and calling the premise of the entire war false, takes control of the main Russian city from which the offense on Ukraine is supported, is shown on video having the support of the city in public, and literally threatens to take Moscow with only ~5k troops. Russia's military forces against Ukraine have been effectively cut off from logistical support. This happened in ~2 days. Meanwhile, while Putin flees in a plane, called the mercenary leader a traitor and said that he would be prosecuted for treason. The mercenary leader then backs away in the final moment, and flees to another country that brokered the negotiations. Putin drops charges and now the military is changing leadership.

They just showed how politically weak and scared Putin really is, not even having control of his own immediate subordinates. They outed that the reason for the war was a lie. They just lost the leader of the mercenary group. They just lost the city from which they support their offensive on Ukraine. They just showed how vulnerable Moscow is, and by a ridiculously small unit of 5k troops. They almost had a civil war.

My best guess is that a coup was successful, and Putin is no longer in charge. We just don't know who really is in charge. They are keeping him there for a soft transfer of power, but a coup happened. The new Minister of Defense will terminate the offense on Ukraine, and the powers that control Russia will place a new face as president.

Anyone else have a better guess?

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