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I think we will have a three way run for President between Biden ( D ), Haley ( R ), Trump ( I ) in November of 2024. Trump will be disqualified in most states preventing him from winning the Republican nomination. He will run independently splitting the right wing votes. Biden goes on to win 45 states.
Nope there is no way this is going to happen. So Trump's eligibility is going to hit the US Supreme Court. It is litigation on the Constitution itself with more or less zero case law around it. This is the kind of thing that every lawyer dreams of putting their name on. It will hit the US Supreme Court and they will take it. So he will be either eligible or ineligible in all 50 states it will not be ~~peace meal.~~ piecemeal
Now that doesn't mean that there won't be a major independent candidate for some other reasons, but not for this reason.
The Supreme Court cannot issue a constitutional amendment, only the States or Congress can do that. It's going to be extremely difficult to claim the 14th Amendment doesn't apply to Trump based on the language and the fact that Confederates were barred from office without being convicted. The Supreme Court would be in breach of power to ignore what the Consitution says.