Can you hear it? The carnies are in town and are setting up a carousel... What are your predictions for HC departures? And for this thread, I'm just asking about schools creating the vacancy (rather than coaches being poached or off to the NFL).
Here are mine:
Fired
- Indiana: Tom Allen is in his 8th year and is 32-45. Note that the record is even worse if you ignore the COVID year when the Hoosiers went 6-2 and were ranked as high as 9th by the AP. I know Indiana has a very low ceiling as a program, but every so often ADs need to push the reset button to trick boosters into dreaming they can rise above their station so that they keep opening their wallets.
- ECU: Mike Houstin. I don't know much about ECU's program but Houstin is in his 5th year and is just 23-30. I think they can do better.
Hot Seat
(I could see half of these guys gone, but hard to say which)
- TAMU: Jimbo Fisher is in his 6th year with a 43-24 record. He has never won 10 games at A&M (although they would have in 2020) and I think boosters are sick of the mediocrity. Not sure, though, if they're sick enough to stomach his buyout (which is what, like $75M?).
- Arkansas: Sam Pittman is in his 4th year and has a 21-23 record (including 2-6 so far this season). There's a lot of chatter about how much his buyout is reduced if fired with a losing record (I think it saves like $6M), but I wouldn't be hasty if I were the Hogs. Pittman can get them to a bowl game half the time and that's better than his predecessors. And they just fired their OC so I think they're going to do the assistant reshuffle to buy him another year (although those never work).
- Baylor: Dave Aranda is in his 4th year with a 23-20 record. That includes a conference championship, but the program has really regressed since then. He's already received the dreaded vote of confidence this year, so he is on notice (but I'd be surprised if they actually make a move). Not sure if his buyout is known due to Baylor being private, but I'm sure there's enough Baptist gold to get rid of him if they want to.
- UTEP: Dana Dimel is in his 6th year and has posted a whopping 19-46 record. He's also never been good before coming to El Paso. I can't really tell what UTEP wants from their program. For years they were content with being awful, but I think UTSA's rise may give them reason to believe they can do better.
- Boise State: Andy Avalos is 20-13 in his 3rd year, which would be great at your average G5 program. I think Boise has higher expectations, however.
- Akron: Joe Moorhead is the only 2nd year HC on my list, and only because he is a dreadful 3-17 at Akron so far and wasn't great at Mississippi State either. I know winning is rare there so he probably gets another year, but I think they should cut their losses (literally) and move on.
- Pitt: Pat Narduzzi is a veteran coach in his 9th year with a respectable 64-46 record at Pitt. They do stink this year though. I could see a "mutually parted ways" situation here as he is probably attractive to other programs.
Retired
- UNC: Mack Brown is 72 years old and in his 5th year of his return stint at UNC, with a 34-23 record in that span. I think the legend may be retiring (again), but only if they cap off the season with a big accomplishment (winning the ACC or a NY6 bowl). I don't think he's lost touch by any means, but he has 105 wins at UNC and 158 at Texas with a natty -- what else could he ask for? When he came back to UNC he had a short contract with 1-yr renewals so I don't think he planned on staying this long.
Note that I'm leaving Saban, Day, Gundy, and Ferentz off these lists, but if you think one of them are gone I'd love to hear it!
I'll take that Jimbo action, but the reasonable half of my brain still thinks the buyout is too big.
Harbaugh has certainly found a way to get back onto the hot seat, again. I remember being surprised pretty much every year since 2019 that he would be coming back for the next.
I think Pittman has two more years, but that's depending on them starting to get a pulse soon.
I think Napier could see his seat get hot again if florida finishes the way they started.
I also think Riley is gone at the end of next year. I wouldn't be surprised if he's gone this year, but I think for a fact he is gone next year.
Re: Jimbo...if you think "reasonable" comes into play, you don't know the crazy cabal that is the A&M boosters. If they want Jimbo gone, they'll find the money somewhere.
It's not the buyout itself that gives me pause, it's that A&M will need to pay the buyout as well as a new coach salary. And I don't know any coach that wouldn't at least get some assurances with the gig in college station
Yeah good point. The buyout is money A&M owes him anyway...he gets the same amount regardless, it just depends on when he gets it. And if you're paying a new coach at the same time, that's a lot of money going out the door each year.
Jimbo set the bar so ridiculously (unrealistically) high with that guaranteed contract, it really put us in a bad spot for future coaching negotiations.
If Jimbo does get the boot in the next couple of seasons, my wish is that we'd be able to lure Mike Elko back. He's doing wonders for Duke and is much beloved at A&M for his stint as DC. But if he keeps winning at Duke he's going to be a hot commodity on the coaching market the next couple of seasons.