RealTesla

[Call Starts Abruptly]

No one told Elon that the microphone wasn't working. Awkward start as Elon starts in the middle of some paragraph without any context.

So, I just want to temper expectations for Cybertruck. It’s a great product, but financially it will take, I don’t know, a year to 18 months before it is a significant positive cash flow contributor.

Elon tapers expectations of Cybertruck.

Vaibhav Taneja:: [snip] As Elon mentioned, our Q3 operational and financial performance was impacted by planned downtimes for our factory upgrades. This was necessary to allow for further factory improvements and production rate increases. Despite such factory shutdowns, our cost per vehicle decreased to approximately $37,500. We saw sequential decreases in material cost and freight. Reducing the cost of our vehicles is our top priority.

Elon isn't the best speaker to talk about these matters. Taneja is arguing that costs are dropping, which is at least a reasonable discussion point on the surface, but we know that profitability / margins are down grossly, so they're losing revenue/profits faster than the costs are getting cut.

A - Martin Viecha: Thank you very much. And now let’s go to investor questions. The first investor question comes from Craig. How many Cybertruck deliveries do you anticipate for 2024?

Elon Musk: It’s difficult to make an accurate guess at this point. Going back to what I said earlier that the ramp is going to be extremely difficult. And like I said, there’s no way around that. If you try to make -- if we just try to do some copycat vehicle design, of which there are literally 200 models that are slight variations on a theme in the combustion engine world, distinctions without a difference, then it’s really not that hard. But if you want to do something radical and innovative and something really special, like the Cybertruck, it is extremely difficult because there’s nothing to copy. You have to invent not just the car, but the way to make the car. So, the more uncharted the territory, the less predictable the outcome.

Now, I can say that -- if you say, well, where will things end up? I think we’ll end up with roughly a 0.25 million Cybertrucks a year, I don’t think we’re going to reach that output rate next year. I think we’ll probably reach it sometime in 2025. That’s my best guess.

Despite all the issues with Cybertruck, Elon still thinks they'll reach absurd numbers of production and sales in as little as 1.5 years.

Elon Musk: In Mexico we’re laying the groundwork to begin construction and doing all the long lead items. But I think we want to just get a sense for what the global economy is like before we go full tilt on the Mexico factory. I’m worried about the high interest rate environment that we’re in.

Elon Musk hedging against the Mexico factory

ETc. etc. etc.

Really, whenever Elon Musk opens his mouth, its bad news for any bull case. Cybertruck sucks. Mexico Factory might not be profitable. Etc. etc. Like... woah. There's still his usual bullshit of making more Cybertrucks about as common as lol Toyota Tacomas, but the details are all bad news.

I should admit that Elon is pumping AI / Robotaxis though. "Baby AGI", lol.