UK Politics

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General Discussion for politics in the UK.
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By-election betting market probabilities (as of 23 June) (kbin.social)

submitted 2 years ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Uxbridge and South Ruislip:

Lab 93%
Con 7%

Mid-Bedfordshire:

Lib Dem 59%
Con 31%
Lab 8%

Selby and Ainsty:

Con 50%
Lab 50%

Somerton and Frome: they don't have a market up yet, but you'd expect this to be a straight Lib Dem vs Con fight.

Source: Betfair Exchange (mid odds, converted to probabilities).

If people find this useful then I'm happy to post weekly updates between now and the by-election dates.

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[–] 15liam20 2 points 2 years ago

Smarkets has Somerton and Frome at 82% for Liberals and Labour at 95% for Rutherglen and Hamilton West

https://smarkets.com/listing/politics/uk/by-elections