this post was submitted on 22 Jun 2023
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Yeah, the writing was on the wall as soon as IBM acquired Red Hat. IBM is going to end up hollowing out Red Hat in their drive for more revenue. They started by destroying CentOS, which used to be a community-supported binary-compatible RHEL analog but is now effectively RHEL Beta and thus useless for enterprise work. Now they're closing the source so they can kill the other RHEL analogs, like Rocky Linux.
It's such a short-sighted move though, so many things got built on RHEL and compatible because those FOSS options existed. IBM seems to think that some significant percentage of those free installs can be converted to a paid install, and they might be right in the short term but I think the long-term impact is gonna be dire. Over time RHEL could became a closed-source ghetto in the FOSS world because fewer developers will be able to test their open source projects on RHEL without paying the IBM tax. Once RHEL starts to fall behind it could cause enough friction that enterprises will start looking to other distros, and then Red Hat's primary revenue stream starts to dry up.
IBM apparently didn't learn their IBM-compatible lesson.
The problem from RH's POV was that the community actually didn't do anything. It was financed by RH just to help Oracle make their commercial RHEL competitor.
I’ve been a happy fedora user for some time now. Maybe it’s time to start distrohopping again.
I think Fedora will continue to be fine for the foreseeable future as it's an upstream OS. It gets changes before they go into an RHEL release, which means a Fedora user is essentially beta-testing future RHEL changes. There's nothing inherently wrong with that and if you're happy on Fedora then you can stick with it and be confident it's going to continue to operate the way it does today (barring any future licensing changes from IBM that affect upstream distros).
This change will really affect the downstream distros like Rocky Linux and AlmaLinux. I think those distros have a valuable place in the FOSS ecosystem, as they allow FOSS contributors a low-friction way to test their code on an RHEL-compatible distro without having to agree to a Red Hat license. The fact they IBM / Red Hat is making this change must mean that they see some advantage in having absolute control of the licensing terms for downstream distros, and I have to imagine that their gain will be at least partly at the community's expense.
Is this the beginning of yet another corporate enshitifcation? Or are we already further in the process? I haven't been paying that much attention to Red Hat.
I hadn't actually thought of this as enshitification, but upon reflection... yeah, it truly is! Red Hat allowed the existence of downstream distros, and even made one of their own in CentOS, because they understood how supporting FOSS dev/test on their enterprise product ultimately increased the overall value of that product to their paying customers. Now that IBM has bought Red Hat they don't care about any of that, they just want to squeeze as hard as possible to maximize the return on their investment. I'd say enshitification started in earnest when they killed CentOS six months ago, so the current announcement is the second phase of enshitification.
That sucks. I didn't know they had already killed CentOS, but knowing IBM owns them makes this less of a surprise, last I checked, IBM has been struggling financially.
I wonder how this change will affect distros like Fedora.
Highly unlikely IMO, unless someone else enters the market of commercial support.
I've been working for big enterprises for decades, not IT companies but big nonetheless.
The reason why Linux could "break the barrier" and enter the enterprise market (at least in EU) is that one day Red Hat became a company capable of guarantee support by means of support contracts.
Big enterprises don't care a product is the best in the world IF they cannot have a contract with some entity capable of commercially supporting it every time there's a problem.
I believe it's very stupid on IBM part to make this move, but as long as they maintain their contracts, big enterprises will stay on Red Hat, they won't care about what will happen to independent developers, they wouldn't be using their software anyway.
Very sad, but at enterprise level there are not many choices when it comes to opensource software.