this post was submitted on 09 Oct 2023
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One argument I've heard that sounds plausible is that Israel and Saudi Arabia were steadily improving their relations, which is really bad for Iran (which is a rival to both of them). Setting off this timebomb now could throw a giant dose of general chaos into the situation, which Iran might be betting will result in disruption of that relationship.
I'm fine with waiting for more evidence either way, of course. Snap judgments are a bad idea here.
"If you've got no good moves, scramble the board" is old advice.
Or knock it over, if you're a pigeon. Iran definitely loves being the pigeon.