this post was submitted on 29 Sep 2023
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I’m in my late 30’s, I definitely remember those toolbars and other crapware that was common back then.
But now is not then. And smartphones aren’t the old Windows 2000 and XP machines of back then. I keep repeating it, but we already have a modern example of how this will go. It’s modern Android. And for the vast majority of people (in the West at least) they don’t install apps that are outside of the default apps or the built in Play Store. And I think the same will be true if iOS allows third party App Stores.
Sure, app developers will try. Apple devices are a huge honey pot that scammers and crappy devs would love to exploit. But after that initial gold rush, users that don’t have the knowledge to discern what is safe and what isn’t will be deterred by the difficulty of installing third party stores and inputting their payment methods. Scams will get press and Apple will warn against using them. And then the vast majority will just use their iPhones as is, with some users going third party for piracy and porn and then savvy users going to them for utilities and functions that Apple just doesn’t allow in the App Store.
I think it will be fine and the history of modern smartphones seems to support that theory.
Android is not an example of this. People don’t spend money on Android, unfortunately, in the store or otherwise, especially not when compared to Apple customers. Devs aren’t gonna do it on Android but they have incentive to do it if it’s forced in the Apple ecosystem. Apple’s users won’t have a choice if it’s legally mandated to allow other stores because these companies will have what amounts to a captive audience.
Android users spending less money doesn't mean no money. There is money to be had, it is just less than iPhone users. And devs did try their own App Store and continue to. Epic for example has their own for Fortnite.
But what happened is that no one wanted to jump through the hoops of enabling third party app installs so most had to bend the knee and come back to the Play Store. If Apple is required to allow the same, I see the exact same thing happening. The majority of users won't want to jump through hoops and won't do it. Some devs will try to force it, but the loss of income will make them come back.