this post was submitted on 23 Aug 2023
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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If unified national and international commitment could achieve monumental progress during crises like the world wars, a similar level of coordinated mobilization is required today. A wartime economic restructuring transitions society at emergency speed off fossil fuels through massive investments, just transition programs, and an enduring rationing of carbon pollution. Government mandates modernize infrastructure, transportation, manufacturing and agriculture along renewable lines while stimulating sustainable jobs and industries.

International cooperation leverages strengths and resources, from research collaborations to emissions pacts holding all nations accountable. Wealthy emitters aid economic transition of frontline nations suffering first from weather extremes. A progressive carbon fee program funds mitigation efforts while incentivizing structural economic changes. Grants assist vulnerable communities relocating from rising seas and intensifying natural disasters.

Prioritizing collectivity and justice transforms sacrifices into liberating progress for all humankind. With science as the commanding general, nonviolent civil disobedience compels stubborn political systems to catalyze transformations long stalled by obstructionism and misinformation. But societal will aligned behind solutions offers hope where bleakness once prevailed.

The problem being, of course, that conservatives and capitalism are ruining everything. Just look at how we fared at COVID. If we can't get the entire population to stay at home and wear masks to protect themselves against a global pandemic, how the heck are we supposed to get them to stay at home and wear masks to protect themselves against climate change?

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Honestly there are three players, which need to change. That is the US, China and the EU. That is about half of global emissions and more then half of global GDP. So if all three would work together the rest would easily be forced to follow.

The US has a massive climate change denying party. Even thou it is not in office right now, they still control multiple states. The Democrats are a bit better, but hardly convinced to stop climate change and only want to do things, which do not hurt, so no emissions trading scheme with hard caps or the like. At least a strong investment into green technology is going on and some states run some good policies, which slowly move things in the right direction.

China is building a lot of green technology, but is also consuming half the worlds coal and is by far the largest emitter of green house gases. Really hard to pretend they are serious about climate change, but the population is shrinking and the economy is growing slower, which means maybe the green technologies slow down emissions growth a bit more in the coming years. A full recession would however really help a lot. However the party hardly cares about the climate.

The EU has an actual plan and the lowest per capita emissions of the lot. However it is also in a position were change is becoming painfull and politicans hate pain. However a lot of pain is going to come as one of the few emissions trading system is in the EU and that caps emissions towards actually going below global average emissions. Also some foreign policy is helpfull, but even that is changing as gas is needed to replace Russian needs. However propably the best of the lot.

The rest is mostly poor or to weak to do something alone. Japan does not seem to care about much, the UK is working on degrowth for the stupidest reason ever, but Brexit is reducing emissions. India is building a lot of solar and seems to be a bit aware of the issues with coal, but developing the c ountry is more important. Brazil is actually in a really good position in many ways, but still is slowly cutting down the Amazon rainforest. Russia actually wants climate change. SA and the other OPEC countries are dependent on fossil fuel sales, they hate the idea of it.

In other words the best the lot could come up with to date is the Paris Climate Agreement. Great stuff, but yeah hardly international cooperation in a war like alliance. Best we can hope for is some country bullying others into reducing emissions.

[–] T0rrent01 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I also think it's foolhardy to naively assume that once the older generations start dying off due to old age, things are just automatically going to become better and more progressive without us having to lift a finger. Wrong! I've observed conservative brain rot already starting to infect my peers. And while I'm fortunate and privileged enough to live in a progressive blue state that (relatively speaking) cares about the Earth, unfortunately, very few communities around the globe have such luxury.

I think better trust in government is what we need. But the way things stand, we are so not ready for this. And if democracy doesn't work in getting people to accept and comply with climate regulations that are bound to follow - and at this point that's much more of a "when" than an "if" - leaders maybe shouldn't be afraid to use force.

Hopefully at that point, we can keep a lid on things better than we did during COVID. But who am I kidding.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

We need an alliance of progressive countries willing to lower their own emissions and using their influence to get other on board. Right now the EU is doing some of that, by including climate goals in trade deals, enforcing high enviromental standards, which causes the Brussels Effect, setting up emissions based import tariffs and the like. That kind of works, as the EU is rich and only has a bit higher then average emissions, but they are generally falling.

So there are good things happening, but a global alliance with all countries agreeing on a hard strategy is just not going to happen. Some countries will lead and others will follow freely or unfortunatly partly by force.