this post was submitted on 07 Aug 2023
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@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Well if we're ruling out long term storage (iron-air batteries and hydrogen), maybe 30-40% nuclear, 80% renewables (intentionally over 100%), and a fair bit of lithium storage?
Ultimately this is determined by how much we can build of each technology by the deadline (which ideally is 2030 or 2035). If we can scale up iron-air fast, that'd be great, but there's a lot of uncertainty there. But this also applies to nuclear: How much new nuclear we can build by 2035 is probably quite limited. Whether hydrogen can be significant on that timescale, and whether leaks can be managed, is another big question.
It's worth trying all the plausible technologies (i.e. other than biofuels and fossil+CCS).
PS "volatiles" *already* make up over 30% of the UK's generated kWh. π So I expect a higher figure.
IMHO the only thing that matters more than the ecological impact of the transition is the *speed* of the transition. Because that determines total carbon emitted. And it determines the carbon intensity of the rest of the transition.
@matthewtoad43 @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis
Yes, but I'd like to add that we need to think about lifetimes.
Let's imagine having built all we need in 30 years, through sometimes extreme efforts.
Current solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries have a lifetime of (a bit generously) 30 years. So we'd have to immediately start again with the entire effort just to keep it up. I'm worrying that this might not be β¦ sustainable.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Fortunately we will have time to work on that. There is plenty of existing renewable plant coming to the end of its service life for us to work on recycling.
Also, hopefully longer term we move towards more rooftop solar rather than farm scale, though of course the amount of land used by solar is insignificant. Short term, farm scale is easy to install; long term, rooftop could be a requirement of construction.
Just as important, once we reach 95%+ renewable electricity, the ecological cost of building new stuff, whether recycled or not, drops dramatically.
Do we want to move towards more nuclear in the long run? Maybe so. On the other hand, the cost of renewables will continue to come down, and it's reasonable to expect the same is true of storage.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis Also I expect demand to drop somewhat in the long term. Unfortunately the more serious degrowth measures will take decades, and the peak demand from heating and EVs means we will need a lot more electricity in 2040 than we have today.
@Ardubal @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis There is also the near-absolute worst case scenario where outdoor agriculture becomes untenable due to wildly inconsistent post-climate weather and the "land sharing vs land sparing" debate is forced down the land sparing route, i.e. if most food can only be grown in heated greenhouses, we'll need vast amounts of energy. In that scenario we may well need more nuclear. But if it's that bad that fast I have my doubts that civilisation can survive the transition; that sort of agriculture is very capital intensive as well as energy intensive, although it is higher yield and makes space for rewilding, and potentially could be our only option if things get really bad.
PS I am not endorsing climate controlled indoor agriculture here. I don't have a clear view on the land sharing vs land sparing thing. I know which side most "degrowth" people would take though.
@matthewtoad43 @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis
I think you do not realize how much of our population only exists because of Haber and Bosch.
@Ardubal @matthewtoad43 @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis
This is a very important observation.
We have the luxury of debate over #renewables vs #nuclear. If we could meet 100% of our energy need through nuclear that would at least be a problem solved.
We have many other problems - eg food production
Whether is it fertiliser production, replacing dirty tractors and oil based transport & shipping. Or coping with increased #climate volatility.
We need solutions here fast.
@matthewtoad43 @MattMastodon @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis
Sorry, but the term Β»degrowthΒ« is a red flag for me.
Sure, we are getting more efficient over time. That's why even Germany's emissions fell over the last two decades.
But cutting power that is actually needed means poverty, and that will immediately end support for long-term thinking as well as severely limit our technical options.
There are too many people for romantic visions of rural self-sufficiency.
@Ardubal @matthewtoad43 @BrianSmith950 @Pampa @AlexisFR @Wirrvogel @Sodis
'#degrowth is a red flag for me' - seems an odd thing to say.
It is not a new idea that humanity is meeting it's natural limits and will have to cut it's cloth & that the #climatecrisis challenge should be shouldered equally.
In some ways degrowth has already happened in #energy where we are using less energy than was predicted through demand side measures.
Degrowth sounds interesting to me.
https://donellameadows.org/