this post was submitted on 07 Aug 2023
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Toronto Blue Jays
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Thinking about it a little, I think we'll probably still have a 6-pitcher rotation by September. I think our 4 workhorses this season could all benefit from a lighter load the rest of the way to the post season. Also, I think several questions remain to be answered, like who's our third best pitcher right now (behind Gausman and Berríos), what's the best role for Kikuchi in the post season (starter or reliever), and does it make sense to keep both Manoah and Ryu on the roster at the expense of bullpen arm
I think until a clear top 5 show they deserve to be the rotation, we run with 6 starters for the rest of the season. Gausman's numbers for sure are better with the extra day of rest, and you can always play with the order if there's an off day. Until our bullpen starts to get overused at least. If there's an opportunity to send a guy to the IL for phantom foot tenderness, we can maybe pull a guy up for bullpen help in a pinch.
Good points! I'd like to learn more about how bullpen overuse is measured, because there's IP obviously, but I feel like the truest definition of bullpen overuse is how much pitching talent a manager is not able to put on the field in a given situation/ game/ span of games, so maybe weighting IP by ERA+ or 'how many players are in the red' (using the Jays stoplight system) might be better. There are probably papers on this, but I'm too tired to read them right now