this post was submitted on 03 Aug 2023
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Україна Ukraine

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Shoutout to @Harry who originally posted the link.

The situation in Ukraine still favors Kyiv despite the limited progress made in the counteroffensive so far. Ukrainian forces attempted a limited mechanized penetration of prepared Russian defenses in the south in early to mid-June, but failed to break through the Russian lines. They then switched to slower and more careful operations while disrupting Russian rear areas with long-range precision strikes. Ukraine began the next, reportedly main, phase of its counteroffensive on July 26 with a determined drive to penetrate Russian lines in western Zaporizhia Oblast. It’s far too soon to evaluate the outcome of that effort, which is underway as of the time of this writing, but it is vital to manage expectations. Ukrainian forces are fighting now to break through the first line of long-prepared Russian defenses. Several lines lie behind it, stretching for many miles. Ukrainian progress will very likely alternate periods of notable tactical advances with periods, possibly long periods, of pause and some setbacks. Much as we might hope that the road to the Sea of Azov will simply open for Ukrainian forces the odds are high that fighting will remain hard, casualties high, and frustration will be a constant companion. All of which is normal in war.

But the Ukrainian counteroffensive can succeed in any of several ways. First, the current Ukrainian mechanized breakthrough could succeed, and the Ukrainians could exploit it deeply enough to unhinge part or all of the Russian lines. Second, Russian forces, already suffering serious morale and other systemic problems, could break under the pressure and begin to withdraw in a controlled or uncontrolled fashion. Third, a steady pressure and interdiction campaign supported by major efforts such as the one now underway can generate gaps in the Russian lines that Ukrainian forces can exploit at first locally, but then for deeper penetrations. The first and second possibilities are relatively unlikely but possible.

The third is the most probable path to Ukrainian success. It will be slower and more gradual than the other two—and slower than Ukraine’s Western backers desire and expect. It depends on the West providing Ukraine with a constant flow of equipment likely over many months so that Ukraine can maintain its pressure until the Russian forces offer the kinds of frontline cracks the Ukrainians can exploit. It is not primarily a matter of attrition. The slow pace of the pressure campaign Ukraine had been using before July 26 is designed to minimize Ukrainian losses. It is not primarily oriented towards attriting Russians either, but rather towards steadily forcing the Russians out of their prepared defensive positions in ways that the Ukrainians can take advantage of to make operationally significant advances. It is still maneuver warfare rather than attritional warfare, just at a slower pace. It therefore requires patience, but it can succeed.

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[–] DingusKhan 6 points 1 year ago (1 children)

It's gonna take a while, but Russia lost when they got into a long dug in conflict. Sadly a lot more lives are going to be ruined before it's over.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago (3 children)

But don't you know that Russia is actually fighting (and winning) an attrition war with NATO? And that any moment now we will reach the point where we can't ignore anymore how Russia's industry is clearly outproducing NATO by far and also has conquered more territory in the last weeks then Ukraine liberated in months.

Or at least that's the delirious ramblings I get constantly flooded with on social media. I guess the troll brigade is Russia's single semi-competent unit...

[–] DingusKhan 2 points 1 year ago

Social media companies do half of their job for them.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I think Russia is hoping to dig in long enough to see a regime change in the US that puts an end to the steady stream of supplies that they have been sending to Ukraine.

[–] FourPacketsOfPeanuts 2 points 1 year ago

A not unreasonable strategy...

[–] Xenon 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

If NATO wanted Ukraine to win Russia wouldn't stand a chance but I'm not seeing it happening so far. Russia is on the way to militarize its entire society. Meanwhile in the West, we only see a very slow wakeup.

Russia is focusing everything on building new weapons and ammo. 20-30 tanks each month, maybe even more plus refurbished old vehicles. Meanwhile the West has sent Ukraine what? 60 Leopard 2 and 14 Challenger 2, after more than a year, maybe the 31 Abrams will arrive eventually; That might be a start but I'm not seeing any new large scale production orders being placed. F-16 may arrive some time next year at best, ATACMS are being withheld due to limited stocks and so on. The West keeps delivering only a fraction of what general Zaluzhnyi has requested for a successful counter offensive.

Russia might be a lot weaker than NATO but if Russia is 100% committed it can still win this war as long as NATO only commits 5%. All of this restraint from the West indicates that they either don't care or they might even be afraid of a crushing defeat for Putin. In any case, even that lukewarm support might die down eventually when calls for peace get louder or after a potential Biden defeat in 2024. That's exactly what Putin is hoping for and he might still succeed.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

At lot of NATO doesnt care about Ukraine winning as much as they do about Russia losing.

Russia has lost how much? Around 2% of its workforce?

As long as that can get worse for the Russians there will be people in the West who wont want the war to end.

As for the US pulling out, they'd largely lose NATO. That would be a rather significant long term loss for US foreign policy.

[–] FourPacketsOfPeanuts 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Trump wanted to withdraw from NATO

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

He also wanted to build a wall and have Mexico pay for it...

Trumps delusional ideas and reality don't match. I would love to see him try tell the GOP and it's beloved military industrial complex to scratch all their projected revenue because the US won't support Ukraine anymore.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

I wish we could. Russia keeps provoking me to want to stay in, but i'd rather be an isolationist and save all that military spending. (China is also not helpful)