this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2023
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The Vilnius summit could have achieved much more, if only the political willpower had allowed it

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[–] Djennik 11 points 1 year ago (18 children)

Ukraine will probably get the NATO membership as a sweetener after the war. Realistically the war will only end through negotiations where unavoidably land will be lost to Russia in exchange for security guarantees.

[–] [email protected] -4 points 1 year ago (8 children)

There's no chance NATO'll grant Ukraine membership. It is right next to Russia, and NATO is scared to upset Putin.

There's a good reason that Zelenskyy states often & publicly that they'll take back Crimea. It is because, imho, NATO would be happy for Putin to have Crimea as a face-saver. But the Ukrainians have lost too much and know that kicking Russia out of every inch of Ukraine is the only guarantee that they'll be safe from future special operations.

NATO likes a weakened Russia but still wants to appease Putin. May they're afraid of what'll happen if he gets deposed. Or maybe he has kompromat on the leaders.

[–] Djennik 5 points 1 year ago

One of the reasons of not granting NATO membership was indeed in fear of russian retaliation. Russia took Crimea and invaded Donbas since then even without the membership promise. Putin is already upset so no reason not to bestow the membership on Ukraine.

Kicking out Russia is next to impossible as they've dug in. What Ukraine has in superior weaponry, Russia has in numbers. Time is bad for both parties, but worse for Ukraine, as Western fatigue will inevitably come.

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