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Europe will need thousands more tanks and troops to mount a credible military defence without the US
(theconversation.com)
this post was submitted on 21 Mar 2025
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TBH, this was one of the things the GOP has kind of right, but as is their way they go about it in all the wrong ways. Europe has relied on US troop presence since WWII, and it’s allowed them to find a balance between high-ish taxes and strong social safety nets. In the past couple decades, as things have gotten more expensive, cracks have formed in this arrangement. Now they need to actually meet their NATO commitments, and keep the people happy by maintaining the safety nets without raising taxes. Good luck with that! Oh, and they also have to do all of this with the growing popularity of far right nationalist movements across the continent! Good times are ahead for all!
EDIT: Sorry if I gave the impression that I think the US will benefit in any way from this arrangement. We are absolutely abdicating our place on the world stage by doing this. I was only talking about the European side of this. Continuing to see the US as a reliable ally is a lost cause, and any international leaders who don't see this are in danger of a very rude awakening. Trump and his cronies have shown that they don't value allies at all - only unceasing loyalty, and even that doesn't guarantee anything. That demand devalues the sovereignty of the nations to whom they think they will be able to dictate terms! I fear the old saying "It takes many good deeds to build a good reputation, and only one bad one to lose it." will haunt the US for more than a generation (not to say that all the US has done was good, but a lot of good was done). And to be clear, when I say "the US" I mean the entirety of the US. I never voted for Trump, but I'm included in that. Our voters and many/most of our leaders simply can no longer be counted on as allies by other free and democratic countries. At this point, I'm not even really looking forward to the midterm elections.
Yes and no. The US chose to project its power around the world after WW2. It used that military power and umbrella protection to shape free trade deals, and preferential deals for US interests.
From a US perspective whats happening is the destruction of something extremely powerful to the US interests. US power and influence will be massively diminished in an era when China is on the rise.
Europe will be able to afford to go to 3% of GDP on military spending. It'll be painful in the short term but worth it for Europe as it will give them independence. Its not a threat to European tax and spending - that remains its aging population. Increased military spending will be a marginal problem.
Trumps destruction of US dominion is going to reduce their influence and power on the global stage. Even if the Americans elect an outward looking president next, Europe and other NATO allies can no longer rely on American promises as Trump has shown how quickly american orthodoxy can be undone.
The US spends 3.4% of its GDP on its military and for that it got an extraordinary amount of influence and power. The US will continue spending that much but will now be getting much less value for its money.
And don't forget, after Trump alienating every ally, Europe will probably spend that money in Europe and not in the US. So yes, we will spend more money, but we will gain in taxes and growth.
I really don't see the US as the winner in anything here.
Defense contracting will become a jobs program essentially