this post was submitted on 17 Feb 2025
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turnout compared to registration, not previous registration of the year before, compared to the previous year that turnout implies very high return rates, which are not quite what we see when looking at the data, the 2020 election had about 5 million more total turnout than the 2024 election. Likely due to the easier voting at the time of the 2020 election. Which is about a 3% change in turnout.
turnout in the battleground states being the same makes sense, i'm curious about the turnout between registered voters, and political alignment, because if i had to guess, a bunch of registered dems, didn't vote. Which would align with the party demographics, of course the other options are, the US literally wanted trump, which was a global shift away from incumbency, you can see it in the data, or that more republicans were mobilized.
It's not hard to account for the voter turnout, the problem is specifically why, did trump just run a more effective campaign mobilizing more people? Or did the harris campaign fail to mobilize people to actually vote, as has historically happened.
i mean, does this align with the incumbency though? Coming from the biden admin where he had pretty bad ratings, it's possible a lot of the downballots were republican at the time, the us tends to flipflop like that, again, it's historical precedent.