this post was submitted on 03 Feb 2025
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Bit chilly today, otherwise fine.
Imports and exports have largely been the same before and after Brexit, with a dip as people figured out the bureaucratic mountains of paperwork involved that wasn't needed before.
Source: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdf
Section 3 for the graphs.
I dare say we've lost a lot of influence across Europe over it. We didn't get any of the supposed "benefits", but trade didn't just drop off a cliff either. For all the bluster over the hardness of the Brexit we'd like, it mostly seems to be business as usual.
That's not the universal view within the government, the OBR has estimated that imports/exports of goods and services are 15% lower than had the UK stayed in the EU although some research goes as high as 30% and some as low as 6%
Yeah, we're likely down a few percent of growth each year. Over time the compound interest on that may end up adding up to a lot.
Still at least we didn't stick a shit load of tariffs on it out of sheer spite.