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NATO's newest member comes out swinging following latest Baltic Sea cable attack
(go.theregister.com)
this post was submitted on 13 Jan 2025
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So is the goal of damaging the cables simply to lash out at the West (and waste their money) while maintaining plausible deniability? Or does it have some strategic objective?
usually these types of actions are to measure the consequences and the response, a trial run for something bigger that also lets you see how much of a pushover your adversaries are and how much they'll let you get away with.
This attack allegedly came from a "shadow fleet" that is so poorly maintained, that it must be pretty cheap to operate. Meanwhile, NATO responded by deploying real warships that are a lot more expensive. So on the surface it seems like a good trade monetarily.
But I think Russia is falling for a version of the gambler's ruin. The gambler's ruin says that for beating the casino, a positive expected return is not enough. You also need enough bankroll to survive volatility swings. Most gamblers have significantly less capital to risk than the house, so the house can still win in the long run by wiping the gambler out completely.
Russia is in a similar situation. They won the money trade on this round, but NATO is not close to being economically strained, either. They have much deeper pockets than Russia.
That tanker that floats around in the baltic has 100.000 Tonnes of crude oil in it.
Must be worth something.
Also if you stop a shadow tanker from operating, Russia has one less revenue.
If you are referring to Eagle S, it carried 35 000 tons of unleaded fuel.
We Finns have impounded the contents.
The ship itself will probably not be released back, due it being a tool for crime. Likely it will be sold in order to decrease the repair costs of the cable. Or stripped for parts.
The seamen operating it are being processed by our judical system for crimes: 9 (out of 24) are suspected for sabotage and disrupting communications.
Nice.
I did think about another ship though the Enentin tanker, friday it just stopped moving and started drifting, the germans towed it.
Fixing the cable also costs money.
They are lashing out to look stronger to their own population. They're doing small stuff like this because they're weak and don't want an actual fight