It's easy to look at the side of a war of attrition where you have more information and say that they're losing because you don't have as much information on the other side. Russia has every reason to present itself as still having massive reserves to call upon because it helps their case.

Many people thought that Germany was on the cusp of winning WWI during the spring offensive in 1918.

That being said I think Ukraine's situation isn't great. I was surprised at the seeming depth of the Russia's reserves. They have been sustaining incredible losses for the last year almost, and yet continue to advance. During previous phases of the war we saw them overextend themselves and then have to retreat against Ukrainian advances.

Russia's reserves are finite both in terms of manpower and equipment. They are demonstrating strain in both categories and will presumably start to have sustainment issues soon. If Ukraine can hold together and stop the advance then presumably the next phase would be a negotiated peace hopefully. There's always a chance that some shoe could drop though. Putin could die or get overthrown, the west could withdraw all support, China could start providing blank-check support to Russia, Russia could successfully go into full-mobilization mode.

[–] rottingleaf 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I live in Russia. There even isn't much panic about being caught on the street to be conscripted, because that's still rare luck. Can't say anything about Russian economy, probably they are burning reserves to make it appear more stable from the inside than it really is.

Russia’s reserves are finite both in terms of manpower and equipment.

Three times those of Ukraine, with similar expenses.

They are demonstrating strain in both categories and will presumably start to have sustainment issues soon. If Ukraine can hold together and stop the advance then presumably the next phase would be a negotiated peace hopefully.

Except Ukraine is having these issues right now. It came there faster. I too think there will be something negotiated, but definitely not good.

Putin could die or get overthrown

I think whichever way this war ends, this will happen. It's just too much of a bloodbath, the war has to end somehow, and then he'll be reminded that there's more to that regime than one man.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 days ago (1 children)

There even isn’t much panic about being caught on the street to be conscripted

Because Russia hasn't mobilized besides the "partial mobilization" in 2022. The question is why. One theory is that they don't need to. The other theory is that they can't. I live in the US and remember the Iraq war. In 2004 one of the biggest things going around was that Bush was going to start conscription.

But if he were to have attempted mobilization the support for the war in the US would have instantly collapsed so instead he tried various things to fill the ranks like using mercenaries, "backdoor drafts" via stoploss, activating national guard, etc. And in the end, let's be honest, the US lost both of Bush's wars.

[–] rottingleaf 2 points 2 days ago

One theory is that they don’t need to.

They are giving citizenship to labor migrants for service there, and to various illegals, so I'd say they need it.

The other theory is that they can’t.

They can. That "partial mobilization" is still in effect. These people are simply afraid of calling anything by its name.

They want to pretend it's still 00s and we are an imperfect democracy with a counter-terrorist operation slowly going on in Northern Caucasus, we have a fairly elected president with his high rating, stability and booming economy and all that. They really liked that while it lasted.

But, ahem, they don't want to let go of power. Still, they are trying to call everything the words which would aesthetically fit into that atmosphere of 00s, and it doesn't make any sense for anyone outside their crowd.

And in the end, let’s be honest, the US lost both of Bush’s wars.

It lost the peace after. It won both wars.

I mean, one can redefine a lot of terms, but then USSR lost WWII, since it fscked up the restoration of its parts of Europe.