Russian forces do not have the potential to capture the cities of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro or Kharkiv, but they could take advantage of the chaos in the management of Ukrainian troops and achieve some local victories.

This is in line with what most sources agree on. And although these losses may sound like a lot, it's not much more than the area of Luxembourg, when Ukrainian gains in Kursk Oblast are counted too.
This is a war of attrition, meaning Ukraine is giving up land, so they can draw back and spare their soldiers, while taking down a higher ratio of advancing Russian soldiers.
These advances by Russia come at extreme cost, and the idea is that Russia will not be able to sustain such losses.

[–] Valmond 23 points 1 day ago (5 children)

And that russian losses, economy, production cannot go on more than some 3-6-12 months depending on who you listen to. It won't stop stop ofc but just make the russians less and less effective until it's more or less useless.

[–] Buffalox 20 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

russian losses, economy, production cannot go on more than some 3-6-12 months

Absolutely, Russia is already slowly collapsing, and it will get a lot worse in 2025. I'm guessing around summer or autumn so many things in Russia will disintegrate that they can't continue effectively anymore. Real estate market can collapse at any time, collapsing the financial market, but the financial markets are already so hard stressed it's basically the same as if it was collapsing. In practice neither people or businesses can borrow money.
bankruptcies are already high despite a heated economy, and this will only get worse as inflation rises. Russia is beginning to price regulate to keep inflation in check, but that will only lead to shortages and more bankruptcies.

There is no way Russia can continue this war and get its economy together. The cracks are showing everywhere now. Air traffic is having safety regulations lifted to keep flying, and just the other day, 2 passenger planes had to emergency land, because of engine failure.

Russia is out of options and out of reserves, from this point the decline will only accelerate.

[–] Valmond 11 points 1 day ago (2 children)

I'm only hoping Trump won't "lift all sanctions" or something equally disastrous that won't save russia but let it keep going a year or two more.

But it seems like he's surrounded with some reasonable people when it comes to Ukraine so there is hope, I hope!

[–] Klear 4 points 1 day ago

I would expect the weapons lobby to be more powerful than Trump, and in rare case it might actually work out as a positive. Could be wrong though. Things could get real bad.

[–] Buffalox 3 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I certainly hope so too, if he does however, sanctions from the EU and many countries will remain in force. And Trump will create a diplomatic nightmare towards essentially all countries that are traditionally friendly or even allies of USA.

[–] Valmond 2 points 1 day ago

Yeah, "interesting times" ahead for sure.

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