Ukraine

Nothing in the article indicates that Putin is likely to be overthrown and without that the headline is false. The war has been bad for the Russian people, the Russian economy, and Russian prestige and influence abroad, but Putin can survive all of that (without experiencing any personal hardship) unless a bunch of men with guns decide to turn against him. Something like that is never even mentioned in the article, but what the author does mention is:

Despite Russia’s woes, we should not make the mistake of believing that Ukraine and the West are near victory in this conflict. ... Ukraine has been unable to halt the steady Russian advance and is not going to be able to do so without substantially increased support, which is unlikely to come. Kyiv’s allies have become increasingly war-weary since the failed counter-offensive in 2023 and many are resigned to a peace deal. Recent comments by President Zelensky suggest he too is now prepared for that, even if it means territorial concessions.

I'm not sure where the author gets his impression that Putin is in an untenable position. I'd love some good news but this isn't it.