Ukraine

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Day 986.

Today, as Moldova resists alleged Russian meddling in Sunday's presidential vote, we report on how Russia is arming drones with thermobaric 'lung-busting' warheads, according to a leading Forensic Research Institute.

Contributors:

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Roland Oliphant (Senior Foreign Correspondent). @RolandOliphant on X.

Content Referenced:

Russia Deploys Deadly New Weapon in Drone Race With Ukraine (Newsweek)

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-drones-shahed-race-deadly-new-weapon-1979040

Notable targets include the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kyiv Patriarchate, segments of the Crimean Tatar Muslim community, and various Protestant denominations, all branded as "undesirable" by the authorities.

A Ukrainian official told Reuters in July that most first person view units' target strike rate had fallen to 30%-50%, while for new pilots that can be as low as 10%, and that signal jamming was the main problem.

The official predicted that AI-operated first person view drones could achieve hit rates of around 80%.

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAL-_4JS2dU

Day 983.

Today, we discuss the North Korean general sent to lead troops in Ukraine, hear the latest from Georgia, and consider the impact of the First World War on Putin’s worldview, and how the treaty that ended the battles of the Eastern Front serves as a warning for today.

Contributors:

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Venetia Rainey (Co-host Battle Lines podcast). @venetiarainey on X.

Marika Mikiashvili (Analyst and Lecturer). @Mikiashvili_M on X.

Dr Thomas Clausen (Historian and Analyst). @DrThomasClausen on X.

Content Referenced:

Our sister podcast Battle Lines, which Venetia co-hosts:

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/battle-lines/id1712903296

Ukraine’s frontline is ‘crumbling’ against Russian advances, says general (The Telegraph)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/30/ukraine-crumbling-russia-zelensky-victory-plan-kyiv/

North Korea’s new ICBM missile records longest flight time yet (The Telegraph)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/31/north-korea-new-icbm-missile-longest-flight-time/

Close ally of Kim Jong-un is leader of North Korean troops in Russia, says Ukraine (The Telegraph)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/31/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin-ukraine-pyongyang-troops-gen-kim/

South Korea weighs arming Ukraine after North Korean deployment (FT)

https://www.ft.com/content/e7ca9021-1321-46c8-9b0c-2009a4c0dd50

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2a5w1XbDLI

Day 982.

Today, further to updates on the front and in the political realms, we are joined by Danylo Mokryk, a war crime reporter, and Evan Williams, a multi-award winning producer and director, about their recent documentaries on the subject of war crimes. A warning: today's episode features graphic descriptions.

Contributors:

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Danylo Mokryk (Investigative Journalist, The Kyiv Independent). @DMokryk on X.

Evan Williams (Producer and Director). @evanwilliams_tv on X.

Content Referenced:

Danylo Mokryk's investigative documentary Shadows Across the River: https://kyivindependent.com/shadows-across-the-river/

Evan Williams's new film On The Cranes Call:

https://thecranescallfilm.com/

Ukraine and Russia in talks about halting strikes on energy plants (Financial Times)

https://www.ft.com/content/69a57022-aeed-4bfe-8ada-b2ccd38f162a

How Ukraine Can Defeat Russian Glide Bombs (RAND):

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/06/how-ukraine-can-defeat-russian-glide-bombs.html#:~:text=The%20most%20practical%20counter%20to,air%20capabilities%2C%20and%20electronic%20warfare.

The new face of European illiberalism (Financial Times):

https://www.ft.com/content/78f49467-1e2c-4c4f-9908-897ce8d5319d

A Russian air force commander blamed for a lethal attack on a shopping centre in Ukraine has been found bludgeoned to death with a hammer.

Ukraine’s military intelligence said that it had assassinated Col Dmitry Golenkov, a senior officer in Russia’s 52nd heavy bomber regiment, with the “hammer of justice”.

Golenkov was said to be behind one of the most egregious attacks on a civilian target of the war. Images of a rocket striking the shopping centre, and its aftermath, were circulated widely.

Ukraine said on Monday: “A Russian Tu-22M3 pilot has been liquidated on the territory of the Russian Federation. His head was smashed with a hammer.”

The Tupolev Tu-22M3 is a modernised version of a Soviet-era long-range strategic bomber.

Golenkov’s body was found outside the village of Suponevo in the Bryansk region of Russia.

It was not clear how Ukraine carried out the killing, but Ukrainian special forces and partisans have been expanding operations inside occupied territory and Russia since the war began.

A video, shot at night, showed Golenkov’s body lying face down in shrubland, with his head covered in blood. He had been carrying a white plastic bag.

From his base in the neighbouring region of Kaluga, Golenkov ordered bombing missions to be flown over Ukraine.

One of his targets was the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk in June 2022, an attack that killed 22 people.

The shopping centre was full of shoppers on a Saturday afternoon at the time of the attack. Ukrainian officials said that there wasn’t a military target in the area.

Golenkov was also accused of being involved in a bombing raid in January 2023 against Dnipro in Ukraine that killed 46 people.

Ukraine’s military intelligence said that Golenkov had held the position of chief of staff of the aviation squadron, giving him an important planning role.

“He was involved in missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets,” it said.

The Russian ministry of defence has not commented.

Ukrainian military intelligence has developed a reputation for daring operations behind enemy lines and this is not the first time that it has claimed the assassination of Russian military personnel inside Russia.

In 2023, it used data from a fitness app to plan and execute the murder in Krasnodar of a Russian submarine captain who had fired missiles at Ukraine.

Dozens of collaborator officials in occupied parts of Ukraine have also been assassinated by Ukrainian agents.

In 2023, Ukraine’s military also planted a bomb inside a bust to kill a Russian military blogger at a street food café in St Petersburg.

Day 981.

Today, as Ukraine announces a mobilisation drive to get another 160 thousand people into uniform we report how Russia is continuing to use chemical substances on the frontline, and we hear live from a cyber security expert in Kyiv about how the unseen war online is progressing.

Contributors:

Dom Nichols (Associate Editor). @DomNicholls on X. Daryna Antoniuk. @daryna_antoniuk on X. Hamish de Bretton Gordon @HamishDBG on X.

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