Ukraine

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YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYpNTXIPTjc

Day 1,000.

Today, we report on Russia's response to President Biden's change of positions on long range weapons, and hear from our team on the ground in Ukraine relaying the mood in the country on the 1,000th day of the full scale invasion.

Contributors:

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Roland Oliphant (Senior Foreign Correspondent). @RolandOliphant on X.

Francis Scarr (Journalist at BBC Monitoring). @francis_scarr on X.

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Francis Farrell (Reporter at the Kyiv Independent). @francisjfarrell on X.

Content Referenced:

My 24 hours strapped into Putin’s propaganda machine (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/15/putin-propaganda-24-hours-of-russian-media/

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YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqehTi451wQ

Day 999.

Today, after a weekend that saw the biggest missile and drone attack on Ukraine in almost a year, we examine whether President Biden’s permission - finally - for Ukraine to use US weapons inside Russia, is responsible statecraft or too little, too late?

Contributors:

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Joe Barnes (Brussels Correspondent). @Barnes_Joe on X.

James Crisp (Europe Editor). @JamesCrisp6 on X.

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[YouTube version not yet up, will be available later at https://www.youtube.com/@telegraph/videos]

Day 997.

Today, we assess the state of the Russian army, hear new revelations from inside the Biden administration, and look deeper at the impact of this war in other theatres, such as Korea and Africa.

Contributors:

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Roland Oliphant (Senior Foreign Correspondent). @RolandOliphant on X.

With thanks to Dr Samual Ramani of the Royal United Services Institute and Oxford University. @SamRamani2 on X. Dr Samuel Ramani's latest book is Putin's War on Ukraine:

https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/putins-war-on-ukraine/

Articles Referenced:

The best books on Ukraine in 2024, from Chernobyl to Zelensky (Ada Wordsworth in The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/non-fiction/best-ukraine-books-2024-zelenskyy/

Record Death Toll: What We Know About Russia's Losses in Ukraine by November (BBC):

https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cjr4zy2nye5o

The ‘Deathonomics’ Powering Russia’s War Machine (Wall Street Journal):

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-ukraine-war-military-death-pay-6cfe936e?mod=Searchresults_pos6&page=1

Biden’s escalation paralysis has devastated Ukraine (The Hill):

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4988504-biden-administration-ukraine-war/

Former Governor Confirms Russian Military Engaged in Looting in Kursk Region Villages (Meduza):

https://meduza.io/news/2024/11/14/byvshiy-gubernator-podtverdil-chto-rossiyskie-voennye-zanimalis-maroderstvom-v-selah-kurskoy-oblasti

Putin cuts payments for wounded in war against Ukraine (Kyiv Independent)

https://kyivindependent.com/putin-approves-reduction-of-payments-for-injured-in-war-against-ukraine/?mc_cid=f0af270ac7&mc_eid=08d0680a95

In echo of Soviet era, Russians are informing on each other over Ukraine (Reuters)

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/more-russians-denounce-each-other-over-ukraine-echo-soviet-era-2024-11-15/

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For me the article loads and then collapses behind a paywall. So it's free and no free at the same time? 🤷 No idea, so here it is:

Ignore the Russian propaganda: Britain’s Challenger 2 tanks are still supreme

Grainy footage is circulating of a British-built Challenger 2 tank, donated to Ukraine 18 months ago, allegedly meeting its end in Kursk under fire from a Russian attack drone.

If this is true, this would likely be the second British tank destroyed over a period when Moscow is thought to have lost around 2,000 of its own. Perhaps this disparity in performance is why the Russians are so vexed by the handful of Challengers offered to Kyiv. The release of the footage is clutching at some very slippery straws to try and suggest the Russians are in the ascendency in Kursk.

That is, if it’s accurate. To me, the footage smells “off”. First, the tank is in what we call a ‘hull up” position showing the whole vehicle to any attacker. Anybody who has any experience of armoured warfare will know you show as little of your tank as possible to the enemy, in what we call a “hull down” position. Very inexperienced tank crews could make this mistake, but the Ukrainians have been manning these Challengers for 18 months and only two have been badly damaged as far as we understand, suggesting that they know what they’re doing.

Second, while the footage is low quality there doesn’t seem to be any additional armour on the tank. Again, the other Challenger 2’s we’ve seen in active duty in Ukraine have been kitted out with “explosive-reactive” armour or drone cages.

Third, the drone is attacking the strongest part of the tank, the frontal 60 degrees of the turret. None of the drones we’ve seen in Ukraine so far should really be able to damage armour of this thickness; usually attacks are characterised by the drone attempting to manoeuvre around the tank and hit it in the rear, or through an open turret.

Finally, there’s no surveillance drone supporting the attack variant, capturing the moment of explosion and conducting battle-damage assessment. This is pretty suspect; usually we get footage from the support unit showing the devastating impact on the unfortunate vehicle in question. The lack of any such footage suggests that perhaps the drone might have been a “dud”, scratching the paintwork but doing little more harm.

Frankly, without further evidence coming to light, my suspicions are that this footage is not quite what it’s purported to be; either less successful than claimed, or a propaganda con with the low quality of the footage helping to pass it off as genuine. On a personal level, I find it quite heartening that the Russians are so fixated with attempting to do down the Challenger 2: it shows that it’s holding up well in performance, quite likely better than anything they’ve managed to build.

If the footage is of a real vehicle, however, then it would appear that the Russians do have access to a genuine Challenger 2. This could be cause for concern as its successor – the imaginatively named Challenger 3 – is based on the same model, and there can be little doubt that Russian engineers will have stripped the captured unit down to its basics to learn whatever secrets they can.

Recent MoD briefs on the Challenger 3 suggest that it will be very different on a technical level, with new fire control systems and defensive aid suites. But this should surely be a wakeup call to the designers and engineers to take stock and re-evaluate their plans on the assumption that the Russians know more than we’d like them to. I have faith that this can be overcome; what Rheinmetall – the German manufacturer involved in the new build – doesn’t know about making tanks isn’t worth knowing!

As I continue to work on my new book – tracing the development of tank warfare from Cambrai, the first tank battle, to Kursk today – it’s striking how fundamentally very little has changed. Just as the Germans were fixated by the MK4 tank in November 1917, so are the Russians with the Challenger 2 tank in 2024. I wouldn’t bet against the Challenger 3 continuing this noble lineage.

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YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhoCVMB40n4

Today, we discuss the new wave of bombardments on Kyiv, the latest appointments to the Trump administration and what it means for the wider West, and learn more about Radio Liberty’s impact during the Cold War. Then, later, we do a deep dive into the cosmopolitan history of the city of Odesa and what its people have endured over the course of the war.

Contributors:

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Julian Evans (author of Undefeatable: Odesa in Love & War). @thejulianevans on X.

Julian Evans' book, Undefeatable: Odesa in Love & War

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Undefeatable-Odesa-Love-Julian-Evans/dp/1910895989

Russia's oil and gas industry an easy target for Europe after Trump's election victory (Business Insider):

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-oil-gas-energy-industry-europe-target-trump-election-win-2024-11

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YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_q9MzB1_3g

Day 996.

Today, as Russia's state TV propagandists and government officials express delight at the Donald Trump's cabinet selections, we ask how feasible it would be for Ukraine to develop its own nuclear weapon.

Contributors:

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon (Chemical Weapons Expert and Former Tank Commander). @HamishDBG on X.

Kamal Ahmed (Director of Audio and presenter of The Daily T Podcast). @kamalahmednews on X.

Content referenced:

Lord Hague's Comments on The Daily T (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/13/russia-ukraine-war-zelensky-putin-trump-latest-news/

You can subscribe to The Daily T here:

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-daily-t/id1489612924

Could Zelensky use nuclear bombs? Ukraine’s options explained (The Times):

https://www.thetimes.com/article/2343d101-1c8e-4ca4-a4c1-913ce31e9e42?shareToken=549ff0795172888afdb2ac9c73300c74

British Challenger 2 tank ‘destroyed in Kursk’ (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/14/russia-ukraine-zelensky-putin-war-latest-uk-challenger2-new/

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YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJPd29Sop-k

Day 994.

Today, we look at renewed Russian efforts to retake Kursk before Trump returns to the White House, consider the evidence Europe is responding to the threat of an American withdrawal, and assess potential new appointments in for the new government Washington. Then, later, we hear the euphoric memories of a Ukrainian officer who served in the historic Kharkiv counteroffensive.

Contributors:

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

With special thanks to our guest, a Ukrainian officer we shall not name who served in the historic Kharkiv counteroffensive.

Content referenced:

Putin rushes to recapture Kursk from Ukrainians before Trump takes office (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/11/putin-kursk-assault-ukraine-trump-north-korea/

Donald Trump expected to nominate China hawk Marco Rubio for secretary of state (FT):

https://www.ft.com/content/5ec67430-7c68-4783-bf88-92c82e9d7f6f

Brussels to free up billions of euros for defence and security from EU budget (FT):

https://www.ft.com/content/eb0de7f4-5ba1-460a-a83d-1a7302fc1536

Russian forces damage Kurakhove Reservoir dam in Donetsk Oblast (Kyiv Independent)

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-damage-dam-of-kurakhove-reservoir-in-donetsk-oblast-ukraine-says/?mc_cid=0e0eef55ad&mc_eid=08d0680a95

Starmer to demand Biden hands Ukraine missing $20bn before Trump takes over (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/11/keir-starmer-demand-biden-ukraine-20bn-before-trump-talks/

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The debate over whether Ukraine should be allowed to fire Storm Shadow missiles, made by the UK and France, deep into Russian territory played out for months behind the scenes. The missiles require US technology to be fully effective.

Ukraine is understood to currently only be allowed to use the missiles in limited circumstances on Russian land, such as to hit troops just by the border - though the specifics of any agreements have never been made public.

Mr Zelensky has been calling for permission to fire the missiles further into Russia for months as it could help stop Russian planes taking off before bombing Ukraine.

Well-placed UK government sources said Sir Keir and Mr Macron had become supportive earlier this year.

Previous hopes Mr Biden would approve further use of the missiles were dashed in September over fears of retaliatory attacks on Western military bases.

Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, was supportive but Mr Sullivan was against the move, fearing it would escalate the stand-off with Russia and further entangle America, according to the Foreign Office’s analysis of internal debates.

Should Kyiv be given permission to fire Storm Shadows deep into Russian territory before Mr Trump took office it would be more difficult for the approval to be reversed.

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YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcPOttZTtUQ

Day 993.

Today, after a weekend in which Ukrainian forces launched their largest ever drone attack on Moscow, and Russian losses in Ukraine reached a record daily high, we reflect on the Prague Defence Conference, with discussions centred heavily on President-elect Donald Trump.

Contributors:

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Venetia Rainey (Co-host Battle Lines podcast). @venetiarainey on X.

With thanks to Admiral Rob Bauer (Chair of the Military Committee NATO), Hanno Pevkur (Defence Minister of Estonia), and Lawrynas Kasčiunas (Defence Minister of Lithuania).

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During the call, which Trump took from his resort in Florida, he advised the Russian president not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of Washington’s sizable military presence in Europe, said a person familiar with the call, who, like others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.

Peskov did not immediately respond to a request for comment. After this report was published, the Kremlin on Monday denied the call took place, with Peskov saying it was “completely untrue.”

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YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8lmiXCsAlw

Day 990.

Today, we consider the Trump peace plan reportedly being mooted by his staffers, hear live from another vital summit of European leaders, and discuss a ‘shopping list’ of weapons and permissions Western leaders could action over the next two months to support Ukraine. Later, following the missile damage to Kharkiv’s iconic Derzhprom building, we do a deeper dive into the impact of this war on Ukrainian heritage and architecture.

Contributors:

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

James Crisp (Europe Editor). @JamesCrisp6 on X.

Michael Bohnert (Engineer & Researcher, RAND Corporation. @mbohnert on X.

With thanks to Ievgeniia Gubkina, Ukrainian architect, architectural and urban historian, and curator. @BartlettArchUCL on X.

Articles Referenced:

Trump mulls Ukraine peace plan: British troops patrolling an 800-mile buffer zone (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/07/donald-trump-ukraine-peace-plan-british-troops-buffer-zone/

Trump Promised to End the War in Ukraine. Now He Must Decide How (Wall Street Journal):

https://www.wsj.com/world/trump-presidency-ukraine-russia-war-plans-008655c0

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YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEz0xFDe9CY

Day 989.

Today, as the White House seeks to send Ukraine as much as it can before Trump’s inauguration, we discuss the potential appointments the president-elect might make, and – later – hear about the mood near the frontlines to the political earthquake.

Contributors:

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Jonah Goldberg (Editor-in-Chief, The Dispatch). @JonahDispatch on X.

Adrian Simpson (of Mission Ukraine). AdrianSimp85802 on X.

Dr Claudia Major (German Institute of International and Security Affairs). @SWPBerlin on X.

Mission Ukraine

You can learn more about the volunteer organisation here:

https://www.missionukraine.uk/

Content Referenced:

Trump’s victory means Europe has no choice but to arm – and fast (Francis in The Telegraph)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/07/donald-trump-victory-europe-now-has-two-months-save-ukraine/

Biden team prepares to rush last-minute aid to Ukraine (Politico)

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/06/biden-trump-ukraine-assistance-00187897

Trump win casts fresh doubts over Wall Street's China strategy (Reuters)

https://www.reuters.com/markets/trump-win-casts-fresh-doubts-over-wall-streets-china-strategy-2024-11-07/

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YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TmR3VHX27A

Day 988.

Today, as Ukraine hits a Russian naval base on the Caspian Sea and North Korean troops enter combat for the first time, we examine the fallout from the US presidential election and ask: is Donald Trump the best thing that’s ever happened to NATO?

Contributors:

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Adam Kinzinger (Former Republican Congressman, now senior political commentator at CNN) @AdamKinzinger on X.

Dr Dalibor Rohac (American Enterprise Institute Fellow & Eastern Europe expert) @DaliborRohac on X.

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