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The GPT Era Is Already Ending (www.theatlantic.com)

submitted 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) by [email protected] to c/technology

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If this is the way to superintelligence, it remains a bizarre one. “This is back to a million monkeys typing for a million years generating the works of Shakespeare,” Emily Bender told me. But OpenAI’s technology effectively crunches those years down to seconds. A company blog boasts that an o1 model scored better than most humans on a recent coding test that allowed participants to submit 50 possible solutions to each problem—but only when o1 was allowed 10,000 submissions instead. No human could come up with that many possibilities in a reasonable length of time, which is exactly the point. To OpenAI, unlimited time and resources are an advantage that its hardware-grounded models have over biology. Not even two weeks after the launch of the o1 preview, the start-up presented plans to build data centers that would each require the power generated by approximately five large nuclear reactors, enough for almost 3 million homes.

https://archive.is/xUJMG

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

You are missing a piece of the analogy.

After each key press the size of the letters change, so some become more likely to be hit than others.

How the size of the keys vary is the secret being sought, and this training requires many, many more monkeys than just producing Shakespeare.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 days ago

AI data analyst here. The above is an excellent extension of the analogy.

Now, imagine another monkey controlling how the size of the keys vary. There might even be another monkey controlling that one.

The analogy doesn't seem to break until we start talking about the assumptions humans make for efficiency.