this post was submitted on 19 Nov 2024
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You know the US also has a launch on wanting policy.
If any of the billion dollar spy satellites see an ICBM launch that’s even vaguely going towards the US, we launch an overwhelming response.
Russia isn’t going to drop a few nukes and waltz away, because the US has the same system or better in place already. Especially if Russia hits a nato country, we’re all gonna die due to MAD. One bomb breaks MAD.
The US does not have a launch-on-warning system in place.
https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.pdf
Just because it’s not mechanically automatic, does not mean it’s not a launch on warning system.
The key phrase there is “it does not rely on a launch-under-attack policy to ensure credible defense”
If the US detects a ICBM launch, it will launch a response. It does not matter if the thing that presses the button is a person or an automated program.
Launch on warning just means a country won’t physically absorb a nuclear strike before launching, but will launch if an enemy launch is detected. It has nothing to do with automatic launch systems.
Oh I see what you're saying, I thought the term was more literal than you're suggesting.
I suppose the US president could launch a retaliatory strike based on a first strike that is still in the air, which is launch on warning, but the policy is to wait for a first strike and then have the president issue an order.
My understaning of launch on warning is any policy with no discretion, based on standing orders, not that it was necessarily strictly computer automated. The US policy is "hair trigger alert" which means that the strike systems are constantly in ready state, awaiting a valid order.
All I mean to say is that this is unlike the Russian system, which upon detecting an incoming missile issues valid, pre-approved orders to launch, with perhaps a human needed only to turn the key, but with no built in discretion once the pre-approved order is authenticated. The US does not have pre-approved launch orders.