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So you don’t like Trump or Harris – here’s why it’s still best to vote for one of them
(theconversation.com)
this post was submitted on 10 Oct 2024
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politics
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Your own data proves you wrong:
The only possible conclusion from your own data is that every non-Democrat voter who disapproves of Trump is three Republicans who disapprove of Trump.
Like I said, your math isn't mathing and you don't seem to understand that you contradicted yourself.
You'll be waiting forever, because your confirmation bias is so strong that you can't see it even when you're told it multiple times.
And? Do you think that there is a flaw in the data? Do you distrust the source? Do you interpret it another way that you'd care to share. Do you think that 538 is an unreliable source? Do you have any polls, data, sources .. literally anything that shows a different understanding of the situation?
Are you dismissing my entire stance outright because two different meta-analysis polls don't perfectly total to 100%? Because, that's not how polling works.
Here's another all-voter unfavorability poll with similar results.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/650774/favorable-ratings-harris-trump-remain.aspx
Here's one that shows only 9% of Republicans (4.3% of all voters) with an unfavorable view of Trump. That's a tighter margin for me to work with to try to state that Republicans account for more than 2% of the 3.5% of all voters who view Trump disfavorably, but still mathematically sound. In fact, since you are insisting that the percentages add up perfectly across two separate meta-analysis polls this smaller percentage of unfavorably voting Republicans actually helps my case.
But guess what? None of that really matters because this same poll shows that a significantly higher percentage of independents favor Trump over Harris (44% vs 35%). Which is a direct measure of the question at hand.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/650774/favorable-ratings-harris-trump-remain.aspx
FFS, one person can't be three people! How is this not obvious to you? Explain to me how 3.5% of people can fill 8.5% of the population without treble counting! It's really, really absurd. So you just not understand the problem or something?
You also completely ignored the most recent poll i provided you which bypasses all the math and gets right to the question of who do third party voters prefer more. Guess what? It wasn't Harris.
Did you look at that one? Do you have anything to say about that one?
I'm not going to engage with your gish gallop.
Do you have anything to say about your conclusion that one non Democratic voter equals three Republican ones?
Admit you were wrong and that I might have sensible points to make if you want me to engage with more of your insane and impossible conclusions from your bad takes on opinion polls.
I don't know what you mean by gish but I'd be happy to discuss any other polls that you are more comfortable with... But you'd have to provide some for me to do that.
I addressed your 1 = 3 already.
I will admit to being wrong just as soon as you make a compelling case. I'm sorry but you have not done so. All you have managed to do so far is throw a bunch of personal attacks and then zero in on this one = three which just not the gotcha that you think it is. Make a case. Instead of just criticizing me, perhaps. You don't like my polls? Provide your own. Come on, get involved.
Then look up gish gallop.
Hahahahha. That's rich. I have presented you with a grand total of 4 polls; all intimately relevant to the discussion at hand. That's too much for you to handle?
At no point have you made a coherent argument based on them, though.
Don't switch your criticisms mid stream. Have i presented you with too much data or not? Am I actually guilty of gish gallop or was that just your excuse for ignoring 25% of the data i gave you?
E: conveniently it is the exact bit of data (the only bit provided anywhere yet) that directly addresses the question at hand: Do third partiers prefer Harris over Trump or do they not?
No, this is exactly the same criticism! It's exactly the gish galloper's technique - make a series of nonsense claims, firing salvo after salvo of nonsense into the argument. There's no point me engaging with any of your other claims until you accept that you were talking nonsense with the first. We don't have a basis for discussion unless we agree what counts as sane or rational points to make from data. I think that any points that require one non-democrat to be three republicans can't possibly have merit, and for a fleeting moment I thought you had accepted that your argument on that specific point was erroneous, but I just now read that you don't recant that assertion at all. Why would I engage with other data if you can't agree that that didn't make sense?