this post was submitted on 09 Oct 2024
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Science Memes

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50% survival rate (sh.itjust.works)
submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 49 points 1 month ago (14 children)

Can somebody explain the difference between the mathematician and the scientist parts of this?

[–] [email protected] 206 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (12 children)

The normal person thinks that because the last 20 people survived, the next patient is very likely to die.

The mathematician considers that the probability of success for each surgery is independent, so in the mathematician’s eyes the next patient has a 50% chance of survival.

The scientist thinks that the statistic is probably gathered across a large number of different hospitals. They see that this particular surgeon has an unusually high success rate, so they conclude that their own surgery has a >50% chance of success.

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