this post was submitted on 20 Aug 2024
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Neoliberal
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My final prediction is that between the Arlington Cemetery thing, Cornel West not getting on the ballot there, and no smaller third parties getting in, Virginia’ll stay Blue. Though it’ll be closer than many expect.
Had a perfect hat trick happened 3rd party wise (Which came close: no Randall Terry, RFK got off the ballot, weakened late Libertarian presense. They just needed Cornel West. Plus ideally some random smaller third party, like how NJ got the two small Socialist parties on), plus no Arlington debacle costing suburban votes in the North near Richmond, I might have been willing to consider the possibility of it going red, maybe(about as likely as Michigan, still strong lean blue, but in swing state territory), but not now.
In the timeline where Cornel gets on the ballot, some smaller socialist parties do, and the Arlington Cemetary thing goes perfectly(low key visit, no physical altercation, maybe Trump takes one picture with families and posts it instead of a spectacle) I'd be saying Virginia is a swing state this time.