this post was submitted on 02 Sep 2024
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I don't think Linux Bros will ever find a way to appeal to ~~women~~ newcomers. I think it will take a company that can afford to hire UI/UX designers, marketing people, etc.
But, that's hard because there's a chicken / egg situation. Selling a Linux-based computer to the general public is going to be very difficult because of the network effects around Mac and Windows machines. Everyone else uses them and so there are people you can ask for help, there are software vendors who make stuff for the platform (also with nice UIs meant for normal people). I can only see someone spending money to make a mass-market friendly Linux in some limited circumstances.
One situation where a company might make a truly user-friendly Linux distribution is if a company like Valve decided to make a game console. They already have the Steam Deck which is doing really well, but nobody's going to be doing their taxes on a Steam Deck (although they could). But, if they made a desktop-replacement game console that could both play games and also act as a normal home PC, they could afford to spend the money needed to sand the rough edges off the experience.
Another situation might be if a big country mandated Linux for something, either for government computers or for kids in schools. They'd probably have to have a support contract for that, and whoever was supporting those systems would want them to be as user-friendly as possible so they didn't have to deal with as many support issues. So, if say Brazil mandated that all government employees switch to Linux, that could result in some company making a Linux desktop experience that was comparable to Windows.
Agree with you that gov and education should really be using open source software and hardware. Having said that, a normie friendly UI is what killed android and windows for me. Gnome does a good job being easy to use but I prefer KDE because I want configurability more than out of the box simplicity. I do agree with you though that having hardware paired with Linux software like System76 does would increase adoption. Just don't take away my ability to configure things how I like them.
Most of the time the fact there's a beginner-friendly option doesn't mean that there aren't also options for more advanced users. This is especially true with Linux.
On phones both Apple and Google lock things down so much that your options are limited. That's mostly an issue with monopolies not with phones. Macs have a bit more freedom than phones by default, Windows has a bit more than that, then you can go back to Mac if you're willing to hack around and run QT apps and so on. But, I can't imagine a Linux distro that didn't let you ditch a beginner-friendly UI for something more powerful.
I'm still hoping that the success of the Steam Deck will get the ball rolling. Steam Deck success might lead to more games that work really well under Linux. That means less of a reason to keep using Windows. More people using Linux might lead to more software being fully available for Linux, which might get more people to use it. I still think eventually you're going to need non-hobbyists to come in and smooth a lot of the rough edges. But, stage 1 in that whole process is getting more people using Linux, and maybe that's actually happening now.
(It also doesn't hurt that Microsoft keeps shooting themselves in the foot with things like the Cloudstrike bug, and the Windows Recall snoopware failure. Long may that continue.)
From the sound of it, we're well along the road to better Linux gaming. You have to pay attention to a few things like distro choice, setting up software like wine, and certain tweaks and adjustments, but my understanding is that you can play a lot of good games on GNU/Linux now! If Windows Recall can't be disabled, I may be diving into Steam, Proton, etc. all over again as I ditch Windows for the last thing I use it for.
You save it for last, but I think your last point should not be overlooked. Linux's recent successes have been augmented by Windows recent missteps and failures. Considering how bad those are, I think we should credit at least a portion of Linux's use to Microsoft's inadequacy in customization and/overreach in privacy.