this post was submitted on 20 Aug 2024
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Neoliberal
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I doubt it, but there is evidence the blue tilt hit somewhat of a wall. Most of the other Cyan states either held firm since 2020 (Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine), or gone bluer(Colorado slightly, and New Mexico significantly) New Mexico especially went from being arguably the reddest of the lot in 2016(Governor Gary Johnson made it look bluer than it was, he doesn't run and it's razor thin or possibly a Trump win) to one of the bluest outside of Colorado.
Virginia saw a red governor in 2021, no red losses or blue gains since 2018, and 2 red pickups in 2022. Biden did do proportionally better in 2020 than Hillary did, but the Republicans also mostly gave up fighting hard for the state in 2020 compared to 2016 where it was a heavily campaigned swing state(and one of two 'traditional' swing states they lost alongside Nevada). The blue tilt there seemingly peaked in 2018-2019 and has slowly reversed.
New Jersey is a bit of a wild card as it's under polled and unlike these others ones didn't have a red streak or close calls in the Bush Era or 2016. It's a usually solid blue state which was a bit weaker than normal in 2020. (While it technically did a point better blue in 2020, adjusting for national performance it actually dropped 2 and a bit points for the democrats). It didn't elect a Red Governor, but it DID come far closer than anyone expected with Jack Ciattarelli outpreforming polls by 4 or 5 points. It didn't shift in 2020, but Staten Island did go red(and that's former NJ land that's culturally more NJ than NYC or NY) and in 2022 a seat flipped red with no blue gains.
And during the worst week of the Biden Post-Debate fiasco, these two(along with Minnesota) were the only ones with Trump winning polls outnumbering Biden winning polls(Albeit Minnesota was dead even and New Jersey had exactly one poll during this time which is a terrible sample size).
Proportionally speaking I think it's turning red faster than any other given where it started, but Virginia is still redder, probably Minnesota too. If Virginia went red I'd expect NJ to go the election after, though.
I will say I feel Virginia is redder than Michigan at the moment(which is the blue-est of the swing states by a decent bit)