this post was submitted on 05 Aug 2024
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[–] jordanlund 94 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (10 children)

(Sigh) Again, national polls are meaningless since we don't have national elections.

Last time I did this, Harris was in the hole in the swing states where it counted, let's see how it looks now...

Arizona - Trump +2 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada - Tossup, Tie, Harris +2, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico - No polling data for Harris.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/

Georgia - Tossup, Tie, Harris +1, Trump +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

North Carolina - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Virginia - Trump +1 to +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/

Pennsylvania - Trump +2, +3, +4, Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Tie, Harris +11, +12 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin - Harris +1, +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota - Harris +3 to +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

So, previously, Harris was behind everywhere. She's now moved Nevada and Georgia to tossup territory, which is good, but the notable news are the HUGE gains in Michigan and Minnesota.

HOWEVER... Plotted on the electoral map:

The Triumverate is Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Losing any one of those three tanks her and she's down in PA.

She could win all the tossup states and still lose without PA.

[–] Bye -2 points 7 months ago

So it has to be Shapiro.

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