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I don’t think we are real close to third party candidates winning the whole state in a federal election. What this is producing, in the short run, is a way for third parties to gain some traction in the federal election without producing a spoiler effect which fucks up everything and sends everyone running back into the arms of the 2 mostly horrible options that are the current menu

That, and genuine choice and sensible voting for all the statewide and local offices, which is not a small immediate benefit

In the long run it is producing a proof of concept for something other than the FPTP awfulness, including but definitely not limited to the possibility of introducing a better voting system federally once people are happy with and accustomed to a better model and it’s not some weird untested thing. That might lead to genuine representation of the people even in our federal election system if it goes further

I won’t say you are completely wrong about a medium term future where the third party gains so much traction that they win the whole state in a presidential election and create a spoiler effect. That could happen. But the potential gains and avoiding a bunch of other failure modes in the current system to me are a vast improvement and not undone by the existence of that one very specific and very temporary failure mode