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Chinese cars are pouring into Mexico — and the U.S. is worried - Autoblog (www.autoblog.com)

submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/world

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 5 months ago (1 children)

The example of the mobile phone is pretty wrong. The first mobile cost about $4000 and the cheapest today still costs around $25. The original cars cost 30k adjusted for inflation with the cheapest today costing around 15.

Once again. It's always held true. Outside factors could make it take longer but ultimately you said never. Which basically makes your original statement near impossible.

[–] [email protected] -5 points 5 months ago (1 children)

The first mobile cost about $4000

I said a decade ago, not the very first. I also should have said "smartphone". Powering cars by battery isn't a brand new technology.

The original cars cost 30k adjusted for inflation with the cheapest today costing around 15.

I was responding to a meme that said $15K, not $15K (inflation adjusted).

[–] [email protected] 2 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 children)

If you're not adjusting for inflation you're just betting that EV range won't come down in price faster than inflation. Seems like a bit of a technicality, but I still wouldn't bet on it myself. I have a feeling 350 miles of range is going to be pretty common in a few years.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 5 months ago (1 children)

I actually do think EV range will come down in price faster than inflation, and probably at a pretty significant rate too. I just think the the $15K, 350mi EV is unlikely to ever exist because:

The other basic components of a car have a cost, and that's increasing because of inflation, but also increased safety standards and the additional "standard" options the industry pushes. I think the price of a car before the drive-train is getting pretty close to that $15K.
Bigger battery packs have less range efficiency because they have to haul around the rest of the battery. People keep pointing out the BYD Dolphin is sold in China for the equivalent of <$15K, but the base range is 187mi, meaning a 350mi range would need significantly more than double the batteries.
I expect (or at least hope) that range will become less of an issue as charging gets better and more ubiquitous, and owners get used to charging at home. I know some people actually do need 350mi+ range, but I think that's pretty rare so high range cars won't have the economies of scale that cheap, mainstream goods get.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 5 months ago

That makes sense. Though it's not unheard of for breakthroughs in battery chemistry to lead to increased energy density, which would increase range without increasing weight.