this post was submitted on 10 Jul 2023
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The pessimistic take is that it's part of Embrace, Extend and Extinguish. As well as the examples there, look up how XMPP ran into problems.
The more optimistic take is that they feel that they can add sufficient features and convenience that they'll be able to poach Fediverse user's back into their now partly walled gardens. I like to think it will go the other way and the most active users will realise that giving all their stuff to a faceless megacorporation for free is a bad deal and they move over here. Easy for Twitter and Instagram users, not so easy for those on platforms that give you a cut of the revenue you generate for your overlords. Hopefully, alternate sources of revenue would make up for it but it likely won't beyond the big stars.
I tend to side with you here. The reverse is mostly likely to happen with many seeing the danger in the monopolistic game and siding with this side that gives users more control over their data. Talking of revenue, which possible way can the Fediverse be profitable to businesses since advertisement and targetted marketing goes contrary to the core concept and that has been the only known way?