Out of the loop

Shit is about to hit the fan. The Wagner mercenary group has been far more successful in fighting the Ukrainians than the regular Russian army. Their leader Prigozhin has been complaining openly about the lack of ammunition and weapons from Russia and now he claims Russian military leaders have been calling in artillery strikes against his men. Now he says he's headed to Moscow to kick their asses. He's always been tight with Putin and isn't threatening him but if reports are correct Putin is calling him a traitor and is siding with his generals. All of this is happening as Ukraine is poised to launch a counteroffensive. If all of what seems to happening is true and isn't an elaborate distraction/disinformation scheme then it couldn't happen at a worse time for Putin. Also worth noting is Prigozhin has been claiming Russian military brass mislead Putin into going to war by lying about the the threat Ukraine and NATO posed. There has been speculation for quite awhile that a weakened Putin could be vulnerable to an overthrow by the mercenary groups working for him such as Wagner. What this could mean for world political dynamics is anybody's guess.

Note: This is a developing story. My response will likely be edited as news comes out and the progression of events becomes clearer.

Last update: 6/26/23 @ 1650 EST

Russia invaded Ukraine in Feb 2022 on what the world overwhelmingly believes are false pretenses. The arguments were that Ukraine was taken over by nazis and that the country was actually supposed to be part of Russia, not sovereign. The world thought it was going to be a quick war, but Ukraine fought really hard with economic, intelligence, and military-equipment support of the West. Russia severely overestimated its military might, particularly its training and logistics. What was expected to be a quick invasion turned into a long war of attrition.

To help with the war, Putin hired a group of mercenaries he had previously helped build into world prominence. This allowed Russia to commit military objectives and behaviors that would otherwise be considered illegal for the Russian government to accomplish. The mercenaries are called the Wagner Group and have been more effective at accomplishing military goals in Ukraine than the regular Russian military. The Wagner Group grew up to ~50k troops, with most leaders being skilled and experienced military veterans while lower-ranks had Russian prisoners fighting for their freedom. This group is known for committing horrible war crimes, and the leader of the group is widely accepted as a terrible person.

The leader of the Wagner Group is called Yevgeny Prigozhin. He has been vocal about the management of the invasion of Ukraine and at odds with Russia's Ministry of Defense leadership, something that is in part a result of how Putin likes to run Russia: pinning his subordinates against each other. Another tactic that Putin uses is to place relatively powerless people in powerful positions. This make sit hard for the to topple him because they lack elite political connections to do so. Prigozhin was a criminal that started a hot dog street vending business, made a restaurant change out of it, and then became Putin's chef. The person he assigned to Minister of Defense was a also of "low status" as a person from the countryside and minority ethnicity. In line with his approach, Putin pitted the Minister of Defense (Shoigu) and Prigozhin against each other to prevent military forces from toppling him. This, along with their "low status" history, ensured neither accumulated too much power because if one started getting too powerful, the other would take them down.

Back to the war and recent events, the Ukrainians make a stand at the Ukranian city of Bakhmut. Russia assigns Wagner to take the city. The ferocity of Ukrainian fighters caused Wagner to take heavy loses. During this battle, the Russian military coincidentally did not provide Wagner the supplies they were requesting, leaving them in need while fighting their battle. On at least one occasion, the Russian military promised to give him the supplies, to then not deliver them. Prigozhin, frustrated with the way he and his forces are being treated by the Russian military, trades the city of Bakhmut with Ukrine for intel on the locations of high-ranking Russian military officers. Towards the end of the battle, Russian forces attempted to swoop in and take partial victory for taking the city. Additionally, Prigozhin claims that his forces were purposefully attacked by Russian military, losing several men to the attack. Around or after the battle of Bakhmut in which Wagner loss a lot of men, Putin announced that the remaining Wagner Forces will be absorbed by the Russian military. Prigozhin objects to the deal and insists that he replace the Russian MoD (Shoigu). Putin declines the request, and the following happened within the last week, bit mostly over two days.

1. Prigozhin took Wagner forces out of Ukraine, abandoning their missions, and into Russia
2. Wagner Group invaded and took control of the Russian city Rostov-on-Don. This city is the hub from which Russian forces would support Ukraine invasion missions. Prigozhin seemed to have support from the city population, which was disseminated on media. Consequently, the Russian military lost their invasion hub.
3. Prigozhin went on media to tell the world, including the Russian civilian population, that the invasion of Ukraine was based on lies and that the Russian military is a clusterfudge. This indirectly but clearly and openly questioned Putin's leadership. This also directly outed Putin as a liar since he is the one that has been promoting the reasons for the invasion of Ukraine.
4. Russian military forces also lit an oil depot on fire to prevent Wagner from getting more fuel. This means that Russians destroyed access to their own fuel supply.
5. Prigozhin charged at Moscow with ~5k troops at impressive pace. Throughout the way, he barely met any resistance from Russian military. In fact, some cheered him on. However, Wagner forces did shoot down ~7 Russian aircraft and killed ~12 Russian service members throughout this mutiny. Wagner forces had no difficulty overcoming the very minor Russian military resistance that occurred.
6. Putin poorly prepared Moscow for a siege by activating local police & military, shutting down internet, calling Monday a day off, and placing rudimentary military checkpoints outside of Moscow.
7. Putin went on national TV and called Wagner forces treasonous mutineers as enemy of the state and declared that they will be prosecuted.
8. Putin left Moscow for safety via plane, leaving the city to fend for itself and implying that it could not withstand the siege.
9. Putin called several country leaders for support, to include Iran, China, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. China and Kazakhstan both publicly declined support and stated that the issue was internal to Russia. The leader of Belarus brokered a deal between Prigozhin and Putin.
10. Wagner forces made it to 200 km outside of Moscow nearly completely unscathed.
11. Prigozhin then left to Belarus. As of 6/26/23 @ 1630 EST, no one has seen or heard from either Prigozhin or Putin since, though the Russian presidential airplane has back in Moscow since at least 6/25 @ 1500 EST.

The deal:

• Prigozhin is exiled to Belarus with immunity.
• Wagner forces that participated in the mutiny will have immunity from prosecution.
• Wagner forces that did not participate in the mutiny will be absorbed by the Russian military.
• Surely, there's a lot that we don't know

So, WTH? because this is wild!

• Russia almost went into a civil war while it was invading Ukraine.
• The premise for the war was outed as a lie by the most effective military leader of the war.
• Said leader committed a mutiny using his troops and was charged on TV
• The mercenary group was abandoned in Russia to be absorbed by the very military they were fighting with/against
• Everyone saw Putin on TV scared and implicitly pleading for the mutiny to stop
• Putin called several other countries begging for help, some of which declined to help. The one that did help is generally considered a puppet and ineffective, so Putin was saved by someone with a poor reputation and little to no international power.
• Moscow was almost under siege by its own men.
• Russia lost the organization of its most effective troops (Wagner Group)
• Russia has been outed as being incredibly vulnerable to military attack
• Russian troops heard that they are fighting for a lie and at the very least acquiesced to a mutiny

Everyone on the world stage is still waiting. This is something that will have severe repercussions for Russia and indirectly Ukraine and the world. It's like a season finale of Game of Thrones. The big event just happened, and we got left on a cliffhanger. The resolution will likely be played out slowly over the next season, but expect crazy things to continue to happen though not as intense as the build up to a civil war in a nuclear power over 2 days.