The 'war' has been raging since 2019.
The split is happening now, with BRICS countries putting off proprietary technologies.
Emerging Economies will follow suit, since China is a huge producer of cheap electronics.
The EU has been talking about digital sovereignty, and putting funding towards RISC-V development. That will lead to the adoption of open source software (+ cloud).
So whilst there will be a split, there will follow convergence.