“Water makes most things it touches wet. Change my mind.”
this post was submitted on 20 Aug 2023
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the number of comments here who use hard sciences' criteria as the ones and only defining the validity of knowledge is concerning. Human sciences don't have the same foundations, methodologies, etc. as harde sciences, they don't have the same system of validation either, which doesn't mean it's less valid.
Our econ prof told us "Never trust a statistic you haven't forged yourself".
Economics is a branch of philosophy. It doesn’t just observe norms, it creates them. Any descriptive model in economics is also prescriptive.
If a well-regarded economist publicly says the stock market will crash tomorrow, then it will crash, regardless of the soundness of their logic leading up to the statement — even if it was the result of a cocaine binge, botched autocorrect, or a stroke.
This is why treating economics like a hard science is so dangerous. If the prevailing “thought leaders” advocate for a model that says XYZ people are mathematically doomed to live in abject, dehumanizing squallor… then that’s exactly what will happen, regardless of whether that was true before they said it.
Edit: It’s also why it’s such a crime that we only teach neoclassical economics in K-12, as if it’s the One True Way™.
Ceteris paribus, or all things equal is a super common economics phrase. It's basically impossible to maintain in the real world. Economics used to be considered philosophy for a reason. As someone with a economics degree I do pretty much agree with you.
The "hard science" part of it is using past data to build models. You're still more or less trying to tie the figures into a theory of why they happened that may or may not be true. There are so many factors it's impossible to know. For instance I truly believe that the stronger anti-monopoly enforcement and higher taxes played a major role in America's success and the rise of the middle class from post WW2-80s. I have to admit that there are an insane amount of other factors at play here that might invalidate all the trends during the same time though. Every other developed countries info structure being bombed to the ground giving the US a huge start not being the least of which.
Now hold on guys... I think I would put it slightly more useful than reading tea leaves.