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Were China planning to invade Taiwan, its military preparations would be hard to hide. But before troops begin to muster, other actions, of an economic and financial nature, might signal China’s intent.
One area to focus on is commodities, namely energy, food and metals. China would want to secure adequate supplies of each before launching an invasion.
Energy is a good place to start. China imports nearly three-quarters of the oil it uses. The substance accounts for only 20% of the country’s energy use, but it would be crucial to any war effort.
Whereas fuel would be needed to power China’s war machine, food must be procured to sustain its people. China imports more agricultural produce than any other country. Obsessed with food security, it already has enormous stockpiles. In 2021 an official said its wheat reserves could meet demand for 18 months.
As with fuel and food, unusual metal-buying patterns could be a signal. Changes in China’s exports would be a more visible indicator. It might become more reluctant to part with the rare-earth metals crucial to many technologies. China has a near-monopoly on many of these.
Similar thinking infuses China’s approach to the financial system. It has introduced a cross-border payment mechanism that could, if necessary, bypass Western financial institutions—though at present most transactions still go through foreign platforms. China and its state-owned firms increasingly push trade partners to sign contracts in yuan, to reduce the country’s dependence on the dollar. If it were planning for war, China might also move its foreign-exchange reserves out of dollars and euros and into assets that are harder to sequester, such as gold.