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Ukraine’s Top Military Leadership: We Are Starting to Win, Russia Is Starting to Lose
(www.kyivpost.com)
And god I hope they keep going and keep winning.
this post was submitted on 24 Feb 2025
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Which is probably why they're trying to bid up Ukraine with the US using their own minerals.
Edit: Although some are suggesting this article is just propaganda, Russia's main challenge is that their economy is on the brink of failing and domestic support becomes a question if that happens. From a skim that appears to be the main thrust of it.
Their economy has allegedly been on the brink of failing for the past three years according to US state department talking points. Surely any day now the Ruskies will surrender…
I actually doubt the US state department ever said that, exactly. They're diplomats, are very careful about their wording, and are unlikely to promise something they aren't totally sure about.
I'm going by the trajectory of the now >20% interest rate, the fact they're politically covering for massive military spending with massive handouts, the amount of assets still in Russia and the recent reports of a surge in bankruptcies. I don't know if it will be two weeks or a year, but they can't keep this up the same way forever.
The economy, while struggling, is far from collapsing and popular support is almost a non issue. Russia is not drafting. Without a draft, most soldiers joining do so voluntarily, so there is not as much resistance. They have to pay a lot of money to make people sign up to go fight a war and the extra competition for labor (army vs factories) is increasing wages in many categories. The ones most unhappy about the situation are the oligarchs who have to pay for all of it. So unfortunately, betting on Russia somehow collapsing anytime soon is probably a loosing bet.
The more likely bottleneck for Russia is equipment and volunteers for the Army. Their Soviets stockpiles are starting to run low. And, if Russia runs out of people willing to sign up for money, they may be forced to either end to war or start drafting with all the issues that brings.
I base this mostly on Perun YT channel, that has many videos doing in depth analysis of various aspects of the war.
Yeah, that's one of my main sources too.
This is what I mean - they need money to pay for their military industry, ever-scarcer volunteers and a bunch of feel-good handouts like cheap mortgages on top of it. They've basically just been burning the economic furniture to make that happen (including the old Soviet stockpiles), and at some point raising the interest rate will get diminishing returns. Eventually, their spending is going to come up against what they actually physically have and lose, and then they'll get hyperinflation.
It's been suggested they could just muscle through that, and I can't rule it out, but Russia is not Nazi Germany or even Venezuela. Putin's regime has pretty much discouraged ideology of any kind in favour of cynical patronage, so once all the rubles they have to slosh around are worthless they're kind of in uncharted territory.
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I've found that Colonel Maruks Reisner provides some of the best information available on the war.
He doesn't update frequently but all his analysis are sober, detailed, and realistic. He states his pro-Western, pro-NATO, pro-Ukrainian bias clearly.
If I could sum up the general trend of his presentation it's, "The status quo favors Russia. If we don't get our heads out of our asses and step up Russia will win."
He is okay and mostly factual. The tactical and operational analysis is good. However he has been wrong in the past, especially with his strategic interpretations and long term predictions.
The status quo favors Russia. If we don’t get our heads out of our asses and step up Russia will win
That has been his refrain from the beginning. Yet Ukraine is still very much in the fight.
The we is also kind of ironic since Austria doesn't send any arms to Ukraine. The Austrian government and intelligence services as notoriously influenced by Russia. So take that in mind as well.
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