Ukraine

One where 1) there are ~4.5M siloviki per ~140M and lethal force isn't out of question 2) insurgencies in any other city that isn't Moscow wouldn't matter at all past the first week 3) the general populace associates themselves with the country and government way too much, even the dissenting minority and 4) there's no external force for them to rise against; 5) finally, the "elites" never were political actors, not in this century, and the dissidents who consider themselves to be political actors are good media at best, pathetic clowns at worst.

Trust me, I'd love to see that happening and am clinging to the slightest hints of it. There are virtually none, even if one buys into Russian dissident media. My bet is that even freeing all the territories wouldn't spark them. The only ray of hope is the lack of a successor.

Sabotage is powerful in theory, but, as Russia's modus operandi is self-sabotage, it's grown pretty self-sabotage-resilient. My money's rather on sheer incompetence.