The Lindy effect applies to "non-perishable" items, those that do not have an "unavoidable expiration date".[2] For example, human beings are perishable: the life expectancy at birth in developed countries is about 80 years. So the Lindy effect does not apply to individual human lifespan: all else being equal, it is less likely for a 10-year-old human to die within the next year than for a 100-year-old, while the Lindy effect would predict the opposite.
this post was submitted on 04 Jan 2025
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For perishable items, you'd get a bathtub curve. For humans in particular one more precise estimate is the Gompertz–Makeham law of mortality.