It's already causing massive geopolitical changes.. No one can say for sure where it all leads
this post was submitted on 17 Jun 2023
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The major problem is that there is an individual in power in Russia who can neither admit mistakes nor accept defeat. If this individual cannot somehow be removed from power, peacefully or otherwise, then the future is dark. The destruction of the Ukrainian dam is but prelude. It is almost certain the Ukrainian power reactor is wired for detonation as well. The tactical nuclear missiles in Belarus are not just there for bluster or show. They are undoubtedly targeted on scores of major Ukrainian population centers. Keep your fingers crossed...
I don't think this will end well. Slow escalation will eventually lead to a cascade of chaos.
It's global in so much as the global powers that have stakes in the outcome. Russia has been a cancer upon the international community for too long. Zelensky has given western nations a key ally in potentially bringing it all down around Putin's head.
It's possible Putin could do some serious stupid shit in the coming year if Ukraine's counter offensive really makes gains. If that happens, it will definitely become a global conflict. I'd like to think Putin, or at the very least his top officials, aren't THAT crazy.
anyone can envision a scenario whereby V. Putin makes a decision that provokes other powers into direct armed conflict. I'm not so sure.
It doesn't seem in Russia's interest to suddenly fight a war on many sides. I'm also not convinced that NATO is champing at the bit to invade Russia.
I do think wider conflict would happen if a severe breakdown in NATO-Russian crisis communications occurred. Eg: Russian air defenses shoot down an AWACS plane in Polish airspace and nobody grabs a red phone to talk about it.
Who decided that putting the delete button next to edit was a good idea?
anyone can envision a scenario whereby V. Putin makes a decision that provokes other powers into direct armed conflict.
I'm not so sure.
It doesn't seem in Russia's interest to suddenly fight a war on many sides. I'm also not convinced that NATO is champing at the bit to invade Russia.
I do think wider conflict would happen if a severe breakdown in NATO-Russian crisis communications occurred. Eg: Russian air defenses shoot down an AWACS plane in Polish airspace and nobody grabs a red phone to talk about it.
I don't think there would be any invasion of Russia. Rather, NATO air power could systematically destroy every piece of Russian rolling stock inside Ukraine. Anything with wheels, treads or that runs on rails. And perhaps also every Russian stockpile of munitions or supplies inside Ukraine. Never any need to enter Russian territory...
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